MVN - Most Valuable Network

Fantasy football draft guide: As the team goes, so goes the player (NFC)

NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys: Another team with options all over the field. The Cowboys are picked by many to head to the Super Bowl – thanks to fantasy studs like Romo, Owens and Witten. Felix Jones could take some TDs away from Marion Barber, so those two are worth watching. The defense was ranked ninth last season and is very athletic.

New York Giants: The defending Super Bowl champs could take a step back. QB Eli Manning must be consistent for an entire year to be an option at starter. Burress is an elite WR with 1,000-yard, double digit-TD production. It’s unknown how much Kevin Boss can replace Shockey. A knee injury to Umenyiora severely limits the defense. Can they continue their aggressive pass rush without him?

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are picked to win this decision (and go to the Super Bowl) by SI, which means they probably won’t. Nonetheless, they possess fantasy power. McNabb is a definite option at QB and has a RB behind him that comes close to posting a 1,000 rushing/receiving season. The receiving corps lacks a true threat. L.J. Smith is in a contract year and should play much better at TE. Defense was 10-ranked defense in the league a year ago.

Washington Redskins: Jason Campbell is learning a new system. And while that’s nothing new to him, it doesn’t bode well for his fantasy stats, or his team’s chances. Campbell has lacked the big-play ability with his receivers to put them over the edge as a solid compliment to the rushing of Clinton Portis. Chris Cooley, however, is the perfect option at TE after everyone else takes the big names off the board.

NFC North:

Chicago Bears: If your league counts return yards as a category, then Devin Hester is your man. Other than him, well, get Devin Hester. Robbie Gould also knocked home 31 field goals and the defense has lost it (28^th in league a year ago). Serious questions throughout the offense – that could limit how much Greg Olsen can break out at TE.

Detroit Lions: Jon Kitna will make mistakes. Yeah, he threw for a lot of yards (4,068), but he had more interceptions (20) than touchdowns (18). Look for him to continue to rack up the yards, which benefits receiving output from Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams. Somewhere in Detroit, rookie Kevin Smith is drawing Barry Sanders comparisons. Don’t ask me why. But he is a starter and worth keeping an eye on.

Green Bay Packers: I’m with a lot of people on the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is a perfect sleeper/breakout candidate. He knows the system and his limitations. He has plenty of talent (Jennings, Driver, Lee) to work with and I believe he’ll spread the ball around to all three. Their production will keep open a running game for Ryan Grant to build off of his confidence of last season. Mason Crosby kicked 31 field goals – a nice number from the kicker.

Minnesota Vikings: A formula for success is often though to be run the ball + stop the run. Last season the Vikings ranked first in the league at each category. On offense, the QB is a non-factor in the fantasy world. He can spray the ball around, but will he do it consistently. The only for-sure thing is the output of Adrian Peterson. The kid’s a stud.

NFC South:

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are just a not so good team that will be starting a rookie at QB. All football fans know that doesn’t normally equal success. Michael Turner will have a starting gig and every opportunity to showcase his skills. Roddy White eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark last year and will remain a top option.

Carolina Panthers: Jake Delhomme is back and can take this team to the top of the division. He’s consistent enough to put up numbers, especially if rookie RB Jonathan Stewart can shoulder the load. Steve Smith is legit on the outside. Julius Peppers and Chris Gamble will have plenty of opportunities to gain you some extra points out of your defense.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints once again look like a stacked offense, but need to put it together for 16 games. Drew Brees will accomplish a lot, thanks to Colston, McAllister, Bush and Shockey – a cast of players that could all have very successful seasons. The defense was lackluster and will rely on a boost from rookie Sedrick Ellis upfront.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The second-ranked defense will have to carry this team. Jeff Garcia can do the job, but no one ever believes in him. Joey Galloway hit 1,000 yards last season and will be a main option. Earnest Graham had a very decent output last year and is putting himself ahead of everyone else at RB. Watch and see who Garcia relies on after those two, though.

NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald is an elite WR at 100 receptions, 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns. Anquan Boldin has the ability to match those numbers, but are there enough balls to go around? Edgerrin James is a solid pickup after the top class of backs is off the board. At QB, though, a starter hasn’t been determined yet. At this point, my guess is Warner would be better than Leinart.

San Francisco 49ers: The San Francisco clutter at QB is something else. No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith is no longer the starter and J.T. O’Sullivan isn’t an option either. The receivers’ stock drops because of this. Vernon Davis has all the talent at TE, but the 32nd-ranked offense can’t consistently get him the ball which puts a lot on Frank Gore.

Seattle Seahawks: Don’t be the one to underestimate how much Matt Hasselbeck can sling the ball around the field. He just missed 4,000 yards last season and finished with 28 touchdowns. Bobby Engram put together a 1,000-yard season. Nate Burleson will have to hold down the other side until Deion Branch is back. The pressure is on Julius Jones to become a No. 1 back. John Carlson could provide the extra weapon Hasselbeck needs.

St. Louis Rams: Remember the greatest show on turf? That seems like so long ago. Marc Bulger, when healthy, can put up numbers and Torry Holt continues to post the stats. Steven Jackson sat out of camp and will now have built-up expectations surrounding him. Chris Long looks to help solidify a defense, but the Rams could still end up at the bottom of the division.

Fantasy football draft guide: As the team goes, so goes the player (AFC)

Star players can shine in any offense, but you need more than the few star players to win your fantasy league. When it comes to role and second-tier players, the team around them is what provides the numbers.

As the team goes, so goes the player – MVN provides a short preview of each team and what players could find success or failure in their respective system.

AFC East:

Buffalo Bills: Buffalo is a sticky situation. You obviously shouldn’t expect the world out of Trent Edwards, which means that his receivers won’t produce at very high levels either. Lindell missed only three field goals last year and should be in position to hit a few more. Other than him, Marshawn Lynch can be a capable back. Hopefully at times he won’t be carrying the weight of the entire offense on his shoulders.

Miami Dolphins: I think everyone would expect the Dolphins to be better than their one-win season a year ago, but not much better. They still have many questions marks and greatly lack an elite talent. If a healthy, motivated Ricky Williams sticks around, he could add depth to a fantasy RB situation. If you’re looking for some kind of sleeper, is it time yet for Ted Ginn Jr. to break out?

New York Jets: The addition of Brett Favre has upped the fantasy value of every receiver for the Jets. An off-season of improvements will make them a better team as Cotchery and Keller become effective weapons for the veteran Favre. The biggest fan of a legit passing game will be Thomas Jones. He rushed for more than 1,000 yards last year without one, so expect a few more holes to open up.

New England Patriots: The whole team is still a fantasy threat pretty much. Tom Brady is No. 1-ranked quarterback and Randy Moss is the top of some WR charts. You know what Welker and the cast are capable of, however, I wouldn’t pull an early trigger on him. Look for Jabar Gaffney to step up now that Stallworth has moved on. And don’t jump the gun on Laurence Maroney – there are a lot of options in New England and he’s not their first, so don’t let him be yours.

AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens: Who is playing quarterback? And how many carries will Ray Rice take away from Willis McGahee? Derrick Mason is the best receiver? Baltimore is hardly the stop for fantasy talent unless you’re looking for defense or kicker. One guy to watch is Todd Heap. Heap is back and if either of these quarterbacks will find any success, they’ll be sure to include the veteran tight end.

Cincinnati Bengals: Carson Palmer is still an elite quarterback, but the luster of the Bengals is wearing off. Chad Johnson’s partially torn labrum may limit his ability – I’d go with T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Chris Perry and Kenny Watson will take carries from Rudi Johnson so hold off on those three. A solid producer could be Ben Utecht – he’ll be Palmer’s third option in the passing game and will be the QB’s first pass-catching tight end threat since entering the league.

Cleveland Browns: The Browns will put up points. You can find any offensive help you need here – Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, a new Jamal Lewis and a sleeper type in Donte Stallworth will all do well for you. Monitor Anderson, though, if he falters or injuries plague him, Brady Quinn waits on the sideline. The defense is obviously another story. Stay away from the defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers: There’s no reason Ben Roethlisberger can’t match his numbers from last season. He’s a matured quarterback that knows how to use his weapons – Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. Heath Miller will see his end zone touches and prove valuable. Be wary of over drafting for Willie Parker – Rashard Mendenhall’s presence will diminish some of his touchdown and yardage value. Jeff Reed is as consistent as it gets with kickers. Another over draft alert is the Pittsburgh defense. A tough schedule provides one physical matchup after another. There might only be a couple dominating performances from the group.

AFC South:

Houston Texans: The RB situation here is not settled. Steve Slaton could be a sleeper and his situation could be worth the risk of a draft spot. Matt Schaub should evolve more as a player and would be a decent backup to your starter. He spreads the ball around to the likes of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels. All will carry fantasy value – how much depends on the league.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts offense will put points on the board and move the ball consistently, as always. Peyton Manning is elite and his receivers will always produce – that includes Anthony Gonzalez this season. The man primed to take an even bigger fantasy leap is RB Joseph Addai. Addai can run and catch and should take on an even larger role this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Most of the offensive production for the Jaguars relies on the running game and a combination of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor is the spark plug for that. Jones-Drew racks up yardage in runs, receptions and returns. He’s a great all-around fantasy player. David Garrard needs to prove himself for another year. Even if he does, his numbers don’t match up in the fantasy world. He manages the game well on the field, but doesn’t possess the high numbers a fantasy owner would like.

Tennessee Titans: Vince Young hast the talent to put up numbers with both his arm and legs. He’ll have more to help this year, including what should be a much better season for Alge Crumpler at tight end. LenDale White proved to be a workhorse last season. If he can find the end zone this year, he’ll be worth a look and could help the Titans on the field.

AFC West:

Denver Broncos: Selvin Young has his goal set at 2,000 yards rushing. That’s a tough stretch. But what is a good bet is that Jay Cutler will improve. He can add up the yardage and another year maturity will allow him to cut down on the mistakes. Brandon Marshall is legit on the outside and the emergence of Tony Scheffler at TE will give Cutler more confidence to move this team forward.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs continue to struggle and it makes me feel bad for an always-reliable Tony Gonzalez. Brodie Croyle will be behind center this year, so expectations can’t be too high. He has Dwayne Bowe to throw the ball to, but any success for the Chiefs will have to come out of Larry Johnson’s ability to move the chains.

Oakland Raiders: A number of unknowns for the Raiders will keep them from truly competing, but they will be better. It’ll be interesting to see how JaMarcus Russell adapts and whether or not Darren McFadden can live up to the hype. Many will draft McFadden high. Will he disappoint?

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers will move at the speed of LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s arguably the most talented player in the NFL and will be off the draft board first in many leagues. Philip Rivers has decent receivers, but relies mostly on Gates, who is a top-tier tight end. A non-100 percent Shawne Merriman suffers the defense and it’s hard to believe Antonio Cromartie can repeat 10 interceptions.

Fantasy football draft guide: Who to avoid on draft day

Knowing which players to leave on the draft board is just as important as knowing which to take off it. A high draft pick squandered on a player who fails to live up to expectations is a ticket to the fantasy cellar. Here are a few guys who you might think twice about drafting.

STEVEN JACKSON – RB, ST. LOUIS RAMS
This one is a tough prediction because I think Jackson is one of the most talented backs in the NFL, but players coming off a major contract holdout have a tendency to get injured in the regular season. The violence of the game requires running backs to be in peak physical shape, and being away from training camp does nothing to prepare players for the hits that game action will bring. It does not help this situation that Jackson suffered from nagging back and groin issues for most of 2007. That said, a selection of Jackson in the first round is still justified, but if Joseph Addai, Marion Barber or Frank Gore are still on the board when you pick, you might consider taking them over Jackson.

ANDRE JOHNSON – WR, HOUSTON TEXANS
Few question the level of Johnson’s talent, but the bigger concern at this point of his career is his ability to stay on the field. A nagging knee injury limited him to nine games last season and he has had groin troubles already in training camp. Johnson is typically being selected in the late second round ahead of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Marques Colston. I would take either one of them over Andre Johnson.

WES WELKER – WR, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This is the classic case of someone getting too much hype based on one season’s performance. Stated most simply, Welker had a career year last season and will not repeat. That is not to say that he will not do well, just not as well as his average draft position would indicate. After all, in 2005-2006 with the Miami Dolphins, Welker had a total of 96 receptions and only one touchdown. He has certainly benefited from playing in the Patriots’ system, but he is not going to take anyone by surprise this year. Select Welker only if he falls into the fourth round – any earlier than that is an unnecessary risk.

DARREN MCFADDEN – RB, OAKLAND RAIDERS
Fantasy owners are taking McFadden in the fourth round and he is not even the primary back in the Raiders’ scheme. There is no doubt that he has the potential to be an explosive ball-carrier in the NFL, but there are too many things about McFadden that make him a risky selection. To begin with, Justin Fargas is the starter in Oakland. McFadden will undoubtedly get carries, but guys who might get 10-15 carries a game should not be fourth round picks. Also, the structure of McFadden’s lower body and his running style make him susceptible to injury. In fairness, every RB in the NFL is open to injury because of the nature of the job, but McFadden’s shape and style almost lends itself to that. Let someone else take a shot on the rookie.

ANTONIO GATES – TE, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Gates injured his toe last year in the playoffs and required off-season surgery to repair the damage. As a result, Gates has not played in any pre-season games and does not look 100 percent for the season opener. He is unquestionably one of the top options at tight end (not the deepest position) when he is healthy, but fantasy owners should tread lightly with Gates this year. He is going off draft boards in the early fourth round, but it might be prudent to either wait for Gates to fall or to pick up a lesser option slightly later in your draft.

RONNIE BROWN – RB, MIAMI DOLPHINS
Brown had knee reconstruction surgery to repair a torn ACL last October. A return from that radical procedure in ten months is exceedingly optimistic and risky. In most cases, a full recovery from this injury and treatment requires at least 12-18 months. That fact makes Brown one of the riskiest RB picks in drafts this season. In pre-season action, Brown has looked too much like a back with something to fear. That caution will do little for his stats and sends his fantasy value downward. Brown is generally being selected in the middle of the fourth round, but letting him slip is a good move for smart fantasy owners.

ELI MANNING – QB, NEW YORK GIANTS
Coming off an impressive playoff performance and, arguably, the biggest upset in Super Bowl history, many fantasy owners are going to be tempted by the likes of Eli. Don’t be that guy. Manning’s regular season numbers have never justified his inclusion in the elite of the game and his 23-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season is not what you want from your starting fantasy QB. Also, the twin losses of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora from the Giants defense is going to put more pressure on the offense to deliver in the meat grinder of a division that is the NFC East. The Giants charmed run last year is not going to be repeated, and there is a high probability of letdown in 2008.

JON KITNA – QB, DETROIT LIONS
Kitna’s 4,000 yards passing last year should be obscured by the fact that he threw two more interceptions than touchdowns (20 INTs, 18 TDs). He also made it to 300 yards passing only three times all season, and in two of those games he gave up more interceptions than TDs. Additionally, the Lions offensive line has more leaks than a New Orleans levee and Kitna was sacked 50 times last year because of their ineptitude. The departure of offensive coordinator Mike Martz means that the Lions offense is going to be more balanced this year. Considering that there was nothing impressive about Kitna’s game last year other than his yardage total, less passing means less fantasy value from Kitna.

2008 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates

Keep in mind that breakout candidates aren’t always necessarily sleepers, but rather players that we think will have breakout seasons.

Here are 10 to keep on your draft day radar:

QB- David Garrard (Jaguars)- Garrard finished 2007 strong and he looks to continue that trend in 2008.  In his final four starts of the 2007 regular season, he threw for 883 yards, scored 10 total TDs and threw just 3 INTs.  There are a number of quarterbacks to consider this year, but Garrard would serve as a nice back-up with potential to become a number one option.  Troy Williamson is happy to be out of Minnesota and Jerry Porter is happy to be out of Oakland, and they are both looking to have big seasons…once they both get on the field.

QB- Aaron Rodgers (Packers)- The offensive pieces are in place for Aaron Rodgers to have a productive season.  The pressure of Brett Favre backing him up on the sidelines are no longer a worry, but he does still have to try and fill the hall of famer’s shoes.  With Ryan Grant’s running game and a solid offensive line, Rodgers should finally be able to showcase his talent.  Nobody should know the offense better after backing up Favre for the past three years.  Look for Rodgers to start slow and play tentative, but he could be a great option mid-way through the season.  It also helps that the other teams in the Packer’s division (Bears, Lions, and Vikings) were three of the bottom six teams in the NFL in passing yards given up last year.

RB- Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers)- Mendenhall is a talented rookie that is expected to share carries with Willie Parker this year and he could end up as their primary red zone back.  Parker couldn’t get the job done in the red zone last year and scored only two touchdowns.  All-pro left guard Alan Faneca is gone which could be a concern, but Mendenhall is just a Willie Parker injury away from being the primary back and having a monster season.  Pittsburgh coaches love this kid.

RB- Thomas Jones (Jets)- The arrival of Brett Favre has sent the stock of all Jets offensive players through the roof, and now Thomas Jones should now have a lot more room to run.  Couple that with the fact that the Jets landed All-pro left guard Alan Faneca, and Jones could be in for a 1300 yard/ 8 touchdown season.  Jones will lose some carries to Leon Washington, but his future got a whole lot brighter with #4’s arrival.

RB- Michael Turner (Falcons) – This one isn’t a reach at all, as he is listed on every sleeper/break-out list that I have seen, but he needs to be acknowledged.  LT’s back-up is now a starter in Atlanta and he will be seeing the ball a lot this year now that Warrick Dunn is gone.  Jerious Norwood will be trying to earn carries as well, but we see Turner easily surpassing 1,000 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns.

WR- Santonio Holmes (Steelers)- Holmes put up totals last year in 13 games that would have been great for a full 16 games.  52 catches for 942 yards and 8 touchdowns.  He is also entering his third season which many people point to as a “Break-Out” season.  Holmes may still be hanging around in your draft when you are looking for a number 2 WR, so don’t hesitate to snag him.

WR- Calvin Johnson (Lions) – Teammate Roy Williams says Johnson has all the tools of a young Randy Moss.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Williams will be one of players Johnson will have to contend with for receptions.  Regardless of the competition, Johnson and Williams are both primed to have great seasons and Johnson in particular has the potential to put up some monster weeks.  He gains extra value with his leaping ability in the red zone.

WR- Justin Gage (Titans) – The former Bear had a solid second half last year and should be one of the main targets of Vince Young.  Gage’s size at 6’4 makes him a great red zone target too.  Vince Young could show the NFL that he belongs there, and if that happens look for Gage to reap the benefits.  Gage qualifies as a sleeper to have a good season and a possible break-out candidate to have a great season.

WR- Sidney Rice (Vikings) – Adrian Peterson makes everyone on the Vikings offense better and Sidney Rice is no exception.  Defenses will be forced to bring their safety up and that will clear the way for some big plays for Rice.  Tavaris Jackson is not exactly Joe Montana, but he can be effective enough to get the ball to Rice consistently.  Also keep in mind that Jackson may not be the only QB taking snaps in Minnesota by the end of the season.

TE- Randy McMichael (Rams) - This pick is the biggest stretch on the list, but there are a lot of positives to consider. A number of analysts think Marc Bulger will have a big year in 2008 and McMichael hopes to benefit from the resurgence.  The offensive line is not great, but it is better than last year, and Al Saunder’s offense should increase looks to McMichael.  Saunders helped to make Tony Gonzalez and Chris Cooley into stars, so McMichael could be poised for a huge year.  He has the skills, he just needs to get the looks.  60 catches for 600 yards and 5 or 6 touchdowns is a nice season for a TE and he should be able to rack up those numbers and possibly more.

Fantasy Football - Round By Round Analysis

Fantasy drafts are beautiful because they don’t rely solely on one pick.  A successful fantasy football draft is a mosaic of early-round picks that pan out, some middle rounds contributors, and some late round sleepers – along with maybe a prize free agent or waiver wire pick up.  That being said, the best way to construct an award winning draft is to break it down round by round. 

(This is assuming you’re participating in an 18-round draft.  Strategies could change if your draft is more or less rounds.)

First Round:

Your first round pick has to be a home run – no exceptions.  It is almost impossible to think you have a real chance of winning your league title if your first overall pick isn’t in your top three in terms of total team points scored.  The only exception is if you have an instance like in 2005 when Priest Holmes, who was a top-3 pick in most leagues, got hurt, and Larry Johnson stepped in and rushed his way to the Pro Bowl.  That doesn’t happen often – and you shouldn’t count on it happening this year.

Last year, if you took Rudi Johnson in the first round, it was likely that you weren’t in your league’s title game.  This year – buyer beware of Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson.  He stunned everyone last year and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football.  However, he has Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, and he’s still very injury prone.  If you can get him after the sixth pick, he’s a steal.  However – he’ll probably go in the top three this year in most drafts.  That’s way too high for such an unknown entity.

Second Round:

If you didn’t get a running back in the first round, you probably need to address the need here.  If you got a running back or quarterback in round one, then you better take a look at the wide receivers.  Wide receivers are becoming more and more prominent in the world of fantasy football, and having a top flight pass catcher can make the difference between a successful team and a mediocre one. 

Taking Terrell Owens, Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne in the second round would have gotten you laughed out of most leagues a couple of years ago.  Now – you’ll probably make the guy drafting right after you upset because you took his guy.

Remember, though – wide receivers do not a championship team make.  One guy in my league had Wayne, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Wes Welker on his team…and didn’t make the playoffs.  I’m not sure how it happened either.

Third, Fourth and Fifth Round:

Start rounding out your starting lineups, and start evaluating the best player available.  If this means that you take the first tight end in the fourth round because you already have your starting running back, quarterback and wide receiver, so be it.  Getting Jason Witten in the fourth round is better than getting Hines Ward in the fifth.  More value means more points – and that means more wins for you.

Sixth and Seventh Round:

This is where you must get at least one contributor, if not both.  These are the solid guys who have career years, or veterans who bounce back after injury.  If you can swing a starting running back, or a decent number two wide receiver in these rounds, do it.  Edgerrin James is bad third round pick, but in the seventh round, you’re getting a steal. 

This is also where the tight ends start to fly off the board.  Take it from a guy who relied on Chris Baker and Alge Crumpler last year – missing out on a tight end can absolutely kill your fantasy team.  Don’t underestimate the power and contribution of the TE position.

Eight, Ninth, Tenth, and Eleventh Round:

Depth is the key here – especially for your starting running backs.  If you have Brian Westbrook, then you better secure Correll Buckhalter somewhere in this area.  Same for Willie Parker, the aforementioned Rudi Johnson, or even Larry Johnson.  Backups can save your season.  Just don’t go overboard – you could miss out on some value at other positions.

Twelfth, Thirteenth, Fourteenth Round:

You need a backup quarterback here – check your bye weeks!  Nothing is more embarrassing than taking a backup QB, and finding out he has the same bye week as your starter.  That means you have to use another pick or a free agent pickup to repair your mistake.  Fill out the rest of your bye weeks here, too.  Here is where you find the sleeper running backs, the rookie wide receiver that surprises everyone.  Plus, you can execute the most nefarious of fantasy football schemes – stealing your opponent’s backup running backs.

Last year, one guy in my league was going nuts on drafting wide receivers.  He failed to pickup Kenton Keith, the backup for Joseph Addai. I snuck in the back, swiped Keith out from under him, and rode the Colts’ backup RB to victory in week 6 last year.  Perfect value for a 14^th-round pick. 

Fifteenth, Sixteenth, Seventeenth, Eighteenth Round:

In round 15 and 16, take whoever you want or need.  Save the last two rounds for a kicker and a defense.  Do NOT wait until this time to pick up your backup quarterback, or third-string WR.   That’s how you end up starting Brodie Croyle on Peyton Manning’s bye week.  Not a situation you want to be in.

Remember – value is the name of the game.  You can have some definite ideas on who you want, but don’t miss out on an opportunity to score a value pick if it presents itself.  Play it smart, and for the love of God, don’t use more than one pick each on the kicker and defense positions.  Good luck this season!

My Fantasy Football Auction Results

I thought it would be a good idea to share my results from the fairly competitive auction-style draft fantasy football league that I did this past weekend.  I’ll open myself to feedback and/or ridicule by doing so, sure, but I figured it could be valuable for people looking for an idea of how an auction goes. 

We get $150 dollars to draft 14 roster spots and it’s a 12-team league.  The scoring is pretty standard, except it’s one point for every 30 yards passing, passing touchdowns are three points and 50+ yard field goals are six points.  Oh, and we don’t use team defense or IDPs at all.

I’ll breakdown my roster by position with the money I spent on each guy, then at the end I’ll give my final thoughts about how I did.

QBs
Eli Manning, NYG-$7
Matt Schaub, Houston-$16

Notable QBs and $$ they went for: Tom Brady ($31), Peyton Manning ($25), Tony Romo ($35), Brett Favre ($11), Donovan McNabb ($7), Carson Palmer ($24)

RBs
Marion Barber III, Dallas-$55
Michael Turner, Atlanta-$16
Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh-$5
Jerious Norwood, Atlanta-$2
Steve Slaton, Houston-$2

Notable RBs and $$ they went for: Adrian Peterson ($60), LaDainian Tomlinson ($59), Steven Jackson ($47), Brian Westbrook ($51), Joseph Addai ($40), Marshawn Lynch ($50), Willis McGahee ($21), Frank Gore ($40)

WRs
Anquan Boldin, Arizona-$15
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ-$10
Lee Evans, Buffalo-$9
Patrick Crayton, Dallas-$4

Notable WRs and the $$ they went for: Randy Moss ($38), Terrell Owens ($36), Larry Fitzgerald ($29), Braylon Edwards ($23), Steve Smith ($17), Chad Johnson ($20), Reggie Wayne ($29)

TEs
Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans-$7
Ben Utecht, Cincinnati-$1

Notable TEs and the $$ they went for: Jason Witten ($16), Antonio Gates ($7), Kellen Winslow ($16), Tony Gonzalez ($3), Dallas Clark ($10)

K
Nate Kaeding, San Diego-$1

 Most notably, Nick Folk went for $4 and Stephen Gostkowski went for $3

I think I overpaid for Matt Schaub, but Eli Manning may have been slightly undervalued. 

I wanted Barber and was willing to pay whatever it took, within reason of course, to get him.  I’m not real happy with having two Atlanta RBs, but Norwood was the next best available when I sought one again. I think Mendenhall could be a steal, since I think Willie Parker is going to be a bust this year. Slaton has two injury-prone guys ahead of him on the depth chart, and could be a sleeper if he sees a lot of action.

I failed to get a legitimate number one WR along the lines of Terrell Owens or Reggie Wayne, but Boldin could be a good value and Cotchery seems like a solid sleeper (though I may have slightly overpaid for him).  It seemed to me that Lee Evans went fairly cheaply, but he has proven to be inconsistent in his career.  Crayton could be solid as the Cowboys’ number two WR.

I had Shockey on my target list, and I thought Utecht could have some sleeper potential as a backup TE.

Kaeding is a decent value at $1, especially because we had a couple kickers go for $3 or $4.

All in all, I’m not really excited about my results.  But I will say that all of my guys, save for Shockey perhaps (though he is expected to be ready for Week 1), are healthy right now.  And none of my players are facing suspensions.  Most of my league mates are facing at least one or the other of those issues, though who’s to say how truly serious preseason injuries are.

I think I could be in position to at least be a playoff team in this league, but luck as always will be a big part of it.

Fantasy football draft guide: Who to draft and when to draft ‘em

Any dummy can tell you to take LT with the first pick overall this year, but fantasy football championships are not won in the first round. Fantasy managers who do their homework and who pick up exceptional value in the later rounds of the draft are the ones who finish the season with hardware. The purpose of this article is to break down which players could be great value picks at every position and at every stage of the draft.

Readers should keep in mind that these suggestions are based on a standard fantasy football scoring system (four points per passing TD, no points per reception, etc.). Those who are playing in leagues outside that norm have to take that into account on draft day. For instance, I play in a league in which passing touchdowns count for six points. That puts a premium on the value of quarterbacks and makes it essential to get a good one early.

Another league format that should shift cause a shift in your thinking is one that requires three wide receivers and/or rewards fantasy points for every reception (PPR). The need for three wideouts makes it important to acquire at least one by the third or fourth round. Also, PPR leagues send the value of pass-catching running backs (i.e. Brian Westbrook) and wide receivers skyward. Fantasy owners who play in leagues that require three WRs and score by PPR would be well-advised to pick up a number of receivers in the early rounds.

Finally, every smart fantasy owner should be aware of the concept of average draft position (ADP). This tool has become commonplace in the last few years and is invaluable on draft day for gauging the fantasy marketplace. All the major fantasy sports providers (CBS has the best and most accessible, Yahoo’s is hard to use and you cannot access it too deeply until you log-in, and ESPN’s is a little cumbersome, but still useful) make their ADP numbers available, but you can also find reliable and easy-to-read figures at Mock Draft Central (requires you to register for free for partial ADP report or to pay for full report) and KFFL (totally free and customizable). You should not base your entire draft on ADP, but it can save you the embarrassment of taking some guys too early or alert you to good players who are still available in later rounds.

QUARTERBACK

Obviously, most of the managers in your league are going to miss out on Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but that does not mean that your team has to suffer. With a little luck and some good decision-making, you should be able to get a top quarterback in just about any round.

Rounds 1-4
I believe that New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is in for a big year and he is being drafted, on average, in the late second to early third round. The Saints have a terrific offensive line, a healthy Deuce McAllister will take pressure off the passing game and head coach Sean Payton’s offense is perfect for Brees’ style. He also has one of the premier targets in the NFL in wide receiver Marques Colston. Brees in the mid to late second round is a solid pick, any later than that is a home run.

Rounds 5-8
Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler is entering his third year (the traditional breakout year for QBs) and played most of last season with undiagnosed diabetes. Despite that, he still managed to post good all-around numbers. A lot of fantasy players are getting scared off of Cutler by Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall’s three-game suspension, making him available as late as the seventh round. His numbers could suffer in the early season, but I see Cutler as a great fantasy option for the year as a whole. Take Cutler no earlier than the sixth, but jump all over him if he falls past the middle of the seventh.

Rounds 9-12
Players coming off an injury can usually be had at a discount – Carolina Panthers QB Jake Delhomme is just such a guy. Delhomme was terrific in his first two games last year before an elbow injury sent him packing. At the age of 33 he could be past his prime physically, but he makes up for it with experience and good decision-making skills. It won’t do him any harm that he gets to throw to star wide receiver Steve Smith. Delhomme is typically being drafted around the middle of the tenth, but he could make an excellent backup for fantasy owners willing to take a gamble on him in the late ninth or early tenth.

RUNNING BACK

As any experienced fantasy football player will tell you, running backs go quickly off draft boards. That happens because, traditionally, RBs have been the wheels driving fantasy success. Last year was a bit of an anomaly in that QBs and WRs were able to post big numbers, skewing the fantasy marketplace this year. But make no mistake, having top running backs is one of the most important keys to winning.

Another factor influencing the number of running backs chosen in early rounds is the frequency of injuries to these workhorses of the gridiron. RBs get beaten up a lot and few of them are able to work a full 16-game season. Do not be fooled by the number of RBs available on draft day, it is the scarcest and most important position in the fantasy game. The good news is that good value can be found all over the draft board.

Rounds 1-4
The Buffalo Bills are hoping that second-year back Marshawn Lynch can take their offense to the next level. With their solid offensive line and strong defense, there is hope in Buffalo that the Bills can make a playoff run this year. If they do, it is a sure bet that Lynch will be heading that effort. Pick Lynch as high as the tenth pick in the first round.

He is splitting time with aging veteran running back Fred Taylor, but Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew is truly the top runner in that system. He was the third leading receiver on the Jags last season, racking up 1,377 total yards and 15 touchdowns. If Taylor goes down, Jones-Drew could become one of the top rushers in the league. Though he is mostly getting drafted in the late second round, a mid-round pick in the second is worth the gamble.

Rounds 5-8
The Carolina Panthers imposing offensive line should give rookie running back Jonathan Stewart a great opportunity to excel. He is big for a rookie at 230 pounds, he has 4.3 speed in the 40 and he has received lots of accolades for his great attitude. A healthy Jake Delhomme will bring balance to the offense, and the Panthers defense, while not exactly elite, is capable enough to take pressure off the offense. This overall situation creates a huge plus for Stewart’s chances this year. He has been moving off draft boards in the late sixth round, but I would not be shy about taking him earlier.

In some leagues, Arizona Cardinals back Edgerrin James is falling as far as the sixth or seventh round. If he does so in your league, snatch him up. His age and the Cardinals’ marginal rushing offense are both concerns, but James is durable and steady for a second or third back on your team.

Rounds 9-12
Miami Dolphins rusher Ricky Williams has been flying up draft boards recently. The good news for him is that he is now firmly ensconced in a Parcells-style system that loves running the ball and has a questionable air assault. As always with Ricky, the biggest concern is his relative desire to succeed. On average, he is getting selected on or around the middle of the ninth. If he falls anywhere past that he becomes a roll of the dice worth throwing.

His 1,000-yard rushing seasons are probably over with, but New Orleans Saints bruiser Deuce McAllister could move into a role as a touchdown vulture this season. His ability to run between the tackles will come in useful when the Saints get deep into the red zone and he could see a fair amount of snaps as a short-yardage back. Deuce is being taken in the late tenth-early eleventh round. Two major knee injuries in the last three years say a pick any earlier than that is folly, but after that it could be golden.

WIDE RECEIVER

Every fantasy football owner in the world needs to have a good stable of running backs. Wide receivers are important also, but their relative value is highly dependent on the structure of your league’s scoring system. Formats that require three WRs and score PPR inflate the value of receivers, while two-WR, no PPR formats mean that RBs are more significant. You MUST take that into account when choosing when to select your receivers. With that said…

Rounds 1-4
I told you to get Drew Brees, now I am going to have you go after his favorite target. New Orleans Saints wideout Marques Colston finished last season (his second) in the top eight in the NFL in catches, yards and touchdowns. Imagine if the Saints are even better offensively this season (as I believe they will be). Next year, Colston will be a mid-second round pick. This year, you can get him very early in the third, but I would take him in the mid to late second over anyone but Reggie Wayne or Braylon Edwards.

Suspended Denver Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall has fallen down draft boards because of his three-game suspension to begin the season. This fact has created a golden opportunity for enterprising fantasy owners. Considering that he has third round talent, a selection of Marshall in the mid-fourth is a solid one; any later than that is gravy. Yeah, you won’t have him for a few weeks, but he will make up for it in your league’s playoffs.

Rounds 5-8
Players returning from nagging injuries are always risky on draft day, but Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison is worth it. Once one of the most reliable receiver options on draft day, Harrison’s injury and legal problems have scared off some fantasy owners. To me it just looks like he has something to prove, and there is no doubting his quarterback. Harrison is being consistently chosen around the early fifth and he delivers awesome potential value there. I might even risk a late fourth on him.

New York Jets receiver Jerricho Cotchery will likely benefit greatly from the presence of Brett Favre this season. He is coming off consecutive 82-catch seasons and has the ability to get into the end zone more often. Cotchery is getting selected most frequently in the mid seventh, but he is worth a late sixth.

Rounds 9-12
NFL gypsy and Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donté Stallworth is now with his fourth team in four seasons. That lack of continuity likely does little for his ability to jell with a squad, but fantasy owners don’t need miracles from their third or fourth receiver. The Browns passing attack could also be one of the league’s best, giving Stallworth plenty of opportunities to put up numbers. He is being consistently chosen in the early tenth, but it might be worth it to reach into the ninth for his services.

Probably the least well-known NFL receiver with double-digit touchdowns last year is Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Reggie Williams. Despite that, he is coming off off-season arthroscopic knee surgery and has to compete with a large stable of receivers. Still, if he falls to you in the late eleventh or later, he is worth a gamble.

TIGHT END

A good tight end will not single-handedly win you a fantasy championship, but they could be the difference that earns you a first week playoff bye. As such, tight ends have been jumping off draft no earlier than the fourth round, and the top ten is typically gone by the ninth. You don’t want to be left empty-handed at TE when the tenth rolls around.

The best way to approach drafting a tight end is to let the other owners in your league dictate the marketplace. When the first TE goes off the board (most likely Dallas Cowboys TE Jason Witten), wait a round or two and then take one of the mid-level options. This minimizes the chance that you squander a high pick on a bust of a TE. Don’t worry, there are good choices available throughout the top ten of the position.

Rounds 4-8
Cleveland Browns tight end Kellen Winslow is typically being chosen eight to ten picks later than either Witten or San Diego Chargers end Antonio Gates. That makes him a good pick in the late fourth, a steal in the fifth. In two years as a pro, Winslow has never missed a game and has more than 82 catches in both seasons. There are some lingering concerns about his durability, but that should not discourage you from drafting him after Witten and Gates are chosen.

Questions about his health have pushed former stud tight end Todd Heap of the Baltimore Ravens to the middle of the pack. The good news for fantasy owners is that Heap still has tremendous upside. A gamble on Heap in the eighth round could bring a big payoff.

Rounds 9-12
He was sixth amongst tight ends in catches last season, but Houston Texans end Owen Daniels is getting no love from fantasy owners. His problem last year was a low touchdown total (only three in 63 receptions), but it would be hard to get better value from a guy who is usually going near the twelfth round. Quarterback Matt Schaub does not have a lot of great receiving options and Daniels looks to take advantage of that deficiency. If you lose out on the top TEs, take Daniels as soon as the ninth or tenth round.

DEFENSE – SPECIAL TEAMS

The first D/STs should leave your draft board somewhere around the sixth round, but excellent value can be found just a few rounds lower. The unpredictability of the NFL means that risking high picks on defenses is not a good idea. However, don’t wait too long to pick one, or else you run the risk of getting stuck with a defense that will cost you points in Sundays.

Rounds 6-10
Continue to draft skill position players until the ninth round, when you can pick up the Dallas Cowboys or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Depending on who your fantasy provider is, these defenses could even be ranked much lower. Keep an eye on the evolution of your league’s draft and hope that you can wait until the tenth to pick up one of these solid defenses.

Rounds 11+
In quite a few leagues, the defenses of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts are falling into the 11th or 12th round (or are going undrafted). Even if you have acquired another top defense by that time, a flier on one of those two could be well worth it.

KICKER

Alright, this one is easy - do not take a kicker until the last two rounds. It does not really matter which one you select, because even if the one you pick stinks, I guarantee that the waiver wire will have a decent one in-season.

Denver Re-signs G J.R. Smith To A Multi-Year Deal

Denver has resigned guard J.R. Smith to a multi-year contract.  Terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed as of this writing. 

Smith could be a starter for the Nuggets this season, which would automatically enhance his fantasy value.  He is an excellent three-point shooter, a skill that may make him better suited to being a sixth man.  But if he can play better defense, along with a lot of his teammates, Smith could crack and manage to stay in the starting lineup.  

The Nuggets perimeter defense will have to be better in 2008-09 with the loss of interior presence Marcus Camby to the Los Angeles Clippers during the offseason, and Smith will be one of the keys to that.