MVN - Most Valuable Network

Can the Chiefs Beat The Patriots On Sunday?

Originally, this was going to be a snarky, sarcastic column - where the answer to the above question would be “Yeah, if Tom Brady gets abducted by aliens” or “Only if Randy Moss goes ‘Last Boy Scout’ on his entire team and New England forfeits”.  But the more I thought about it, the more I started to devise ways that the Chiefs could win.

Now, I realize the Chiefs are being picked in most of the suicide/last man standing pools in the country, and for good reason.  There is a reasonable chance the Kansas City good guys could finish as one of the worst teams in the league this year.  Rebuilding + unproven quarterback + 80% new faces on the offensive line + Herm Edwards usually doesn’t equal success.  Toss in the fact that we play New England on the road, and that the Patriots are probably more than a little pissed about the whole “18-1″ thing…and yeah, we may see the first mercy rule in NFL history Sunday.

Or - the Chiefs can shock the world.  Here’s how it must be done.

1.) No turnovers- I’m looking in your direction, Brodie Croyle.  Croyle must become the textbook definition of a “game manager” this week.  No spectacular throws, but no mistakes, either.  Remember - a 7-yard curl route on 2nd-and-9 can be a quarterback’s best friend.  Keep the game in hand, don’t panic (easier said than done), and make the simple throws.  Try to keep the “WTF?” throws to a minimum.

2.) Keep Tom Brady off the field - Not exactly a major insight or earth-shaking news here, but this is the key.  If the Chiefs can keep the Patriots’ offense off the field, then they can’t score.  Brilliant, right?  And you wonder why I’m one of 98% of the Earth’s population who writes a blog. 

3.) Run the damn ball - I want Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith so tired after Sunday’s game that instead of sitting in an airplane seat, the Chiefs just place them in their hot tubs in the cargo section of the plane.  If the Chiefs can get 40-45 rushing attempts on Sunday, we win.  Simple as that.  If Croyle only has 15 pass attempts, I don’t think anyone would be disappointed with that.

4.) Make field goals - It’s sad we have to make this a priority, isn’t it?  However, with the recent “ahem” kicking troubles of the Chiefs, and the inclination of Herm and the boys to kick field goals and play the field position game, points are at a premium for the Chiefs.  Making field goals is a cheap three points.  We need to capitalize on it when available.

5.) Special Teams must make a play -No, I don’t mean return a kick or a punt (that’s way too much to ask for).  I mean that we need to cause a turnover on a return, or Dusty Colquitt must continue his march to Canton and keep the Patriots pinned inside their own 20-yard line all day.  Inside the 10 would be even better.

The Chiefs need for all five of these things to happen.  Not two or three, or even four.  All five.  New England is too good and has too much talent otherwise.  Simply put, the Chiefs must play the perfect game on Sunday to win.  Young teams cannot rely on their talent to overcome mistakes.  Can they do it?  Sure they can.  Will they do it?  That remains to be seen.

Sunday, I hope to have a live blog during the game.  Hopefully it won’t be too depressing.

Why the Chiefs Will NOT Win 8+ Games in 2008

Now, for the unfortunate reality. My previous post about why the Chiefs will win 8+ games is, in my opinion, fairly unrealistic.

The stars will need to align in a very big way for the Chiefs to go .500 this season. Let’s look at some of the limiting factors:

• Chan Gailey - It usually takes at least a half season for a new offense to learn an entirely new offense. Before the Chiefs were the greatest show on grass under Vermeil, they spent a half season behind TrINT Green and a pretty stagnant offense
• Gunther Cunningham -I have seen too little from Gun to believe that he is still capable of fielding a top 10 defense in the NFL without Marty Schottenheimer looking over his shoulder. You haven’t seen our young guys get much better under his tutelage, and that’s going to be the absolute defining measure of his success this time around in KC
• Branden Albert -I love the kid’s upside, but he’s almost certainly going to frustrate more than he excites in his first games as an NFL starter. It’s hard enough to play left tackle in the NFL; it’s even harder to play left tackle while missing an entire offseason. And it’s even tougher to play left tackle when you spent your entire college career as a guard
• Brodie Croyle - Now, I have been one of Croyle’s biggest supporters and I have always argued that a Chan Gailey offense never revolves around the quarterback, but based on what we’ve seen so far, we should expect Croyle to make mistakes and a few of them could cost the Chiefs games. Croyle will play behind a very developmental offensive line, operating in a brand new offense, and will have a new responsibility of changing plays at the line of scrimmage. I think he’s capable of overcoming these problems, but I think it will take a little bit of time

As I have always said, I’m perfectly fine with the Chiefs going under .500, as long as they get better as the season goes on and we see a hot streak to close the season. What I fully expect is a team that looks like a shell-shocked deer in headlights to open the season and a tough, competitive team to close the season.

I know these negative viewpoints may be uncomfortable for some, but I absolutely believe that we need to be careful to temper our expectations. Chiefs fans should always root for the Chiefs to win, but they should be satisfied with losses where their young players shine and start to show their potential. Be patient. Get excited about improvement. It might be a rough season in 2008, but it will pay enormous dividends.

Why the Chiefs Will Win 8+ Games

I’m going to do a point/counterpoint discussion about the Chiefs’ prospects for going .500 or above in 2008. Today, we’re going to talk about why the Chiefs can go over .500. Tomorrow, we’ll talk about why they can’t.

Yes, the idea that the Chiefs could go over .500 in rebuild year sounds crazy. Not just crazy. Crazy to the EXTREME. However, there are some people outside of the Kansas City fanbase that are drinking the Kool-Aid. On NFL Total Access, Sterling Sharpe predicted that the Chiefs will win the AFC West. Sterling Who? That’s right, the same Sterling Sharpe that the fans grilled for overhyping Randy Moss and the Raiders two short seasons ago during a Chiefs - Raiders broadcast (yes, I believe he was grilled unfairly). Why would Sharpe have such a “sterling” view of the Chiefs in 2008 (sorry… I couldn’t resist). Let’s play the numbers game to find out.

• 0 - That’s the number of wins the Chiefs had after they lost LJ to injury in 2007
• 4 - That’s the number of wins the Chiefs had in eight games in 2007 before they lost LJ to injury
• 5 - Amazingly, this is the number of over .500 teams the Chiefs play in 2008

4 + 5 + 0 = 9. See, I can do math. What does 9 represent?

• 9 - The number of wins the Chiefs had in 2006 with a team that is, quite frankly, less talented than the team going into 2008. You’ll hear a lot of experts/idiots who will insist that the Chiefs’ offensive line was outstanding in 2006, which paved the way for LJ’s 1,700+ yard season. Here’s the truth: the Chiefs had two disastrously bad tackles that season in Jordan Black and Kyle Turley, and an over-the-hill center in Casey Wiegmann. The only area where they were better in 2006 in fact, was at right guard, which was filled by Will Shields, who was a shadow of what he was during the prime of his incredible career. The o-line will be on par with the line in 2006, they added some firepower at halfback, they’re vastly improved at FB and #2 TE, their receivers are immensely better, their secondary should be better. The only positions where they are worse in 2008 than in 2007 is DE and potentially quarterback. And all the shots are going to be called by Chan Gailey who, like him or not, is undoubtedly an enormous upgrade over Mike Solari

The defense likely took a step back from 2007–in spite of what Chiefs’ fans will tell you, losing Jared Allen is a very big deal. However, if Dorsey plays well and Turk McBride plays serviceably well, and the Chiefs’ young safeties improve enough, it’s possible the Chiefs could be as good or even slightly better than they were in 2007. The Chiefs will improve markedly in their running game with a fresh LJ and a change-of-pace back in Jamaal Charles and they will improve markedly in their offense because of a vastly improved offensive scheme. If Herm Edwards could squeeze nine wins in 2006 out of a mediocre defense and a brutally predictable offense, there’s no reason to believe they can’t do the same in 2008.

Who’s Left on the Waiver Wire for the Chiefs

I thought I’d add a few names to the list of players the Chiefs should be looking at. I still believe the Chiefs should sign Willie Anderson as soon as possible, so that the Chiefs can finally commit to moving Damion McIntosh out of the starting lineup and into the backup left tackle position where he belongs, and can commit to moving Herb Taylor to right tackle where he can develop into the solid long-term starter I think he is capable of becoming.

There are a few other names that have really sparked my interest:

• Chad Jackson — it never seemed like he got much of a chance, but this is still a first round talent we’re talking about here. A part of me says that New England is too good at personnel decisions to let a gem slip out of their reach. Another part of me also believes that the Pats are way too loaded at the receiver position and would rather have certainty than roll the dice on a player they know little about. The Chiefs must absolutely, positively go after Jackson, if only for the intention of blocking him from going to the Raiders. I don’t know if Jackson will be a success or not, but I think he’d be a great #2 receiver and I don’t think it’s worth a young player with his kind of potential landing on a division rival’s team
• Roydell Williams - Here’s a guy who got cut because he was injured, but also has a ton of upside. He was productive in Tennessee’s miserable pass offense, which says a lot. He could be ultra-productive in an offense that knows how to get him the ball. He would probably have to sit most of the 2008 season due to an ankle injury, but how rarely do #4 and #5 receivers ever see the field anyway? He’d be a hell of a lot better of a roster placeholder than B.J. Sams would be
• Eugene Wilson - if veteran experience is what the Chiefs are looking for, why not look Wilson’s way and part ways with Surtain, who is clearly on a visible decline? He has experience in the Tampa 2 defense and would probably be a solid nickel back option for years to come
• Here’s an outside-the-box move. How about making a trade for Jason Peters? I know, I know. It goes against the whole youth movement and rebuild philosophy, but finding a standout left tackle is very difficult to do. Left tackles are well worth the money and well worth the high draft pick it would probably take to get Peters. While I like Albert’s potential at left tackle, we’re talking about a sure thing versus a “maybe.” Can you imagine an o-line that consisted of Peters-Waters-Niswanger-Albert-Willie Anderson (with Herb Taylor being a potential RT of the future?) Talk about upgrading your offensive line in an absolute hurry. Yes, it would cost money in a year when they’re rebuilding, but it also gives Croyle the best chance to win football games
• How about fullback Cecil Sapp from the Broncos? I know we need to stop thinking about running backs, but it’s a name that should be thrown out there

Anyone I’m still missing?