Brewers Acquire Durham
According to Buster Olney, the Milwaukee Brewers have acquired 36-year old second baseman Ray Durham from the San Francisco Giants in return for minor-leaguers Steven Hammond and Darren Ford.
Durham is having a very good year, hitting .293 with 3 HR’s 32 RBI’s and posting a .385 OBP. He is making $7,500,000 this year. The question now will be if the Brewers are going to hand Durham the starting second-baseman gig or if they will use him to put pressure on the struggling Rickie Weeks.
For the Giants, the left-handed thrower Hammond put up very good numbers this year from AA-Huntsville, going 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 88.2 innings. He’s struggled ever since coming up to Triple-A, though, but he should continue to work through and improve those numbers. The other piece of San Francisco’s haul is Darren Ford, the 22-year old speedster. In 91 games this year, Ford has stole an absurd 48 bases, only being caught 11 times. He has 202 career minor-league steals in 400 games, and steals them at a 81% clip. He seems to be in the Joey Gathright mold, a man who can steal 60 bases in a year but never hit higher than .270. Hopefully Ford can prove me wrong.
Brewers Maybe Looking At Street
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal’s Tom Haudricourt has the goods. He learned that indeed the Milwaukee Brewers had a scout at the Oakland Athletics’ game tonight, and the reason was most likely to scout closer Huston Street.
Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin has already made it clear that the Brew Crew are in a “win-now” mode, acquiring soon to be free-agent C.C. Sabathia. On the other side of the puzzle, the Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane has made it clear that Oakland is selling this year. He’s already traded both Rich Harden and Joe Blanton.
The 24-year old Street has had an off-year in 2008, compiling a 4.07 ERA in 38 innings. He’s also blown 4 out of 21 saves. Still, his slider is one of the best in baseball and there’s no doubt he would help Milwaukee in late-game situations, even if Eric Gagne returns to his old form.
TG Analysis: Phillies acquire Blanton from A’s
Philadelphia Phillies
The National League East, while providing some compelling parity (the Phillies, Mets and Marlins are bunched within 1.5 games of one another), is also an eminently flawed division. Be it the outfield woes in Atlanta and Queens or the Fish Fry of a rotation in Florida, each team has a rather sizable wart that keeps fans and analysts alike from embracing any of the aforementioned organizations as a championship-caliber outlet.
Philadephia’s acquisition of Blanton won’t have anywhere near the “Q Rating” of the more splashy Sabathia or Harden proceedings (and deservedly so), but the move helps shore up what had been a particular weak spot on days where a certain lefthanded changeup artist is not scheduled to pitch: Philly’s rotation ERA (4.48) ranks 19th in the majors.
Blanton, 27, is a fellow who derives a significant amount of his value from his durability. The righthander has twice gone over the 200-inning threshold in his career, and is on pace to compile 217 innings of work in 2008. There is nothing at all flashy about him: A four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change) but no out pitch; a significant workload, but at moderate quality (career ERA+ of 100, exactly average). With a career K/9 of 5.10 and 45.2 GB%, Blanton is neither overpowering or a wormkiller; he is simply a league-average starter who tends to work regularly and relatively deep into games. That isn’t sexy, but it collects a fair amount of worth for any team. The 6-3, 250 pounder is under team control through 2010, so Philadelphia will not have to make another Eaton-sized foray into the free agent market.
Speaking of Eaton (making $7.64M in ‘08, $8.5M in ‘09), the flammable righthander is now likely booted to the ‘pen in favor of Blanton. For the purposes of seeing how much of an upgrade Blanton constitutes over the free agent blunder, let’s take a page out of Joe Sheehan’s playbook and estimate the potential runs saved.
Let’s assume that each would have made 13 starts over the rest of the season. Using averages of what each pitcher has done over the past 2 seasons, I’m going to estimate the run values for each pitcher. Over ‘07 and ‘08 Blanton has a Runs Allowed (includes earned and unearned) value of 4.54, and an IP/start total of about 6 and 2/3. Eaton, meanwhile, has a RA of 6.27, and an IP/start of about 5 and 1/3. Using those estimators, let’s see the potential improvement of swapping in Blanton at Eaton’s expense:
Blanton: about 87 IP, 43.9 runs allowed
Eaton: about 69 and 1/3 IP, 48.3 runs. Let’s assume that the additional 17 and 2/3 IP are filled by a league average pitcher (4.65 RA). That’s and additional 9.1 runs added to the total, for a final tally of 57.4 runs.
So, Blanton’s total runs allowed is estimated at 43.9, with Eaton’s at 57.4, a difference of 13.5 runs. One win is generally considered to be worth ten runs, so the Phillies save themselves near a win and a half by shelving Eaton. That may not seem like much, but for a team on the precipice of playoff contention, that could make a significant difference.
However, the above math assumes Blanton maintains his recent level of performance, but his move to Philly may not be as straightforward as “NL= no DH= better numbers” (more on that in the Oakland section).
Oakland Athletics
Baseball is much like the stock market: each team seeks to “sell high” and “buy low” on commodities (in this case, baseball players). Perhaps no front office executive has garnered a better reputation in this regard than A’s GM Billy Beane. Sure, he’s not perfect (Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer for Tim Hudson, anyone?) but more often than not Beane’s trade hauls end up fortifying Oakland with talented, cheap, minimal service-time players.
All that being said, you may be wondering why the organization would seemingly “sell low” on Blanton, perhaps in the midst of his least productive season in the majors (4.96 ERA, 62/35 K/BB). Well, in order for a GM to “sell high”, he needs to believe that said player will rebound and be able to recover that value at a future date. In Blanton’s case, however, there are some reasons to believe that his value is pretty much as high as it is going to get.
The righthander does have sharp control (career 2.39 BB/9), but his K rates are below league-average and have slipped even further in the first half of 2008 (4.39 K/9). Blanton, however, is able to veil his shortcoming (namely, putting the ball in play so much) by playing behind perhaps the best defensive team in the majors: the A’s rank first in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). Put him behind a team with less adept leather (say, Philadephia, 12th in Defensive Efficiency) and in a ballpark less forgiving on the pitching front (Bill James Park Factor for McAfee Coliseum from ‘05 to ‘07: 93; Citizens Bank Park: 105), and you’re basically left with a heftier Paul Byrd. When Blanton’s talents are put in that light, the package received by Oakland looks about fair.
Adrian Cardenas, 20, is considered to be perhaps the best second base prospect in the minors. That is sort of a backhanded scouting complement, as the keystone is a final destination for most prospects, not a starting point. A 2006 supplemental first round pick out of a Miami high school, Cardenas is a career .303/.365/.429 hitter, including a .307/.369/.441 line at High-A Clearwater in 2008. The lefty hitter has a fairly patient approach and a line-drive stroke, though his 5-11, 190 pound frame does not portend to much extra-base pop. Moved off of shortstop very early in his pro career, Cardenas is only adequate defensively and has speed that’s considered a tick below average. He’s no star, but Cardenas looks like a relatively advanced high school product, one who could be ready for Oakland by late 2009 or early 2010 as an offensive-minded second baseman.
Josh Outman, 23, has perhaps the most apt name of any pitcher in history. Aside from an excellent last name, Outman is a 6-1, 180 pound lefty with a decent three-pitch mix: a low-90’s fastball and a workable slider and changeup. Moved to the bullpen during the ‘08 season, Outman has posted a 3.20 ERA in 70.1 frames at AA Reading, striking out out 66 batters and walking 37. Control has always been something of an issue for the Central Missouri State product, with a career BB/9 of 4.41. Oakland may move Outman back into the rotation for now, but his future would appear to reside in the ‘pen, given the control issues and Oakland’s plethora of starting candidates in the minors.
Matt Spencer, 22, was a 2007 third round selection out of Arizona State. Spencer originally started out at North Carolina, but transferred after two seasons over a playing time dispute. The 6-4, 225 pound lefty has good athleticism for a man his size as well as arm strength (he was a reliever at ASU), but his pro career has gotten off to a sluggish start: .263/.318/.469 at Low-A Williamsport in 2007 and .251/.318/.368 at High-A Clearwater in 2008. College-trained products don’t get to slump in A-ball and maintain their prospect status; at this point he’s likely considered an organizational filler.
Much like the pitcher traded away, Oakland’s trade haul isn’t stunning. However, it does provide the organization with an up-the-middle prospect with decent secondary skills, as well as a lefty with some talent under team control for 6 years. Considering the veil was beginning to reveal Blanton’s mere adequacy, this is not a poor swap from Oakland’s vantage point.
Phillies Acquire Blanton
The Philadelphia Phillies shored up their weak rotation today, trading away prospects Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matthew Spencer to the Oakland Athletics in return for innings-eater Joe Blanton.
The 27-year old Blanton is struggling this year, posting a 4.96 ERA in 127 innings, but has put together very strong seasons before and is still young enough to make this year a fluke.
TG Analysis
While the price was quite high, including #2 prospect Adrian Cardenas and #4 prospect Josh Outman, Blanton will still help the Phillies, a team which needs a pitcher that will consistently give you 200 innings plus.
As for the A’s, another wonderful deal for Billy Beane. Oakland now has a crop of 2B prospects in Cardenas, Eric Patterson, and 1st round pick Jemile Weeks. This move would seemingly mean the end of Mark Ellis in Oakland. Expect there to be quite a bit of interest in him.
Yankees Sign Richie Sexson
The New York Yankees have come to terms with first-baseman Richie Sexson, who was released by the Seattle Mariners a week ago. General Manager Brian Cashman believes that Sexson can help the club against left-handers, something that they have had some trouble with. In 71 at-bats against left-handers this year, Richie is hitting .344.
TG Analysis
The Yankees might have gotten a steal here, signing a player who has always been a power threat for a mere $390,000. Sexson should see adequate time at first-base and maybe even play some first.
Arizona Brings Clark Back
The Arizona Diamondbacks have brought back last year’s veteran leader, trading single-A closer Evan Scribner to the San Diego Padres in return for 36-year old Tony Clark. Clark got a mere 88 at-bats with the Padres this year, hitting .239 with 1 HR. He agreed to waive his $500,000 trade bonus in order to return to Arizona.
TG Analysis
This move will definitely give the Diamondbacks a great clubhouse leader and a player that can still produce in the major-leagues. It seemed like Arizona was missing the first-baseman, as they have been in a landslide since their hot April.
Scribner seems to be quite the prospect, posting a career 2.27 ERA in the minor-leagues and is still only 22 years old. Like the Padres needed some more pitching.
Pitch F/X Profile: Harden the Cub
As you may have heard, Rich Harden is now a member of the Chicago Cubs. The 26 year-old Canadian is the ultimate risk/reward acquisition, as his outstanding performance (career 129 ERA+) is countered by his frustrating tendency to hit the DL (6 stints over the past 4 seasons for shoulder, elbow and oblique issues).
To say that Harden is less than a sure proposition would be an understatement; in his next start, he could rack up double-digit strikeouts, or he could exit in the first few frames with any number of maladies. Some red flags were raised in Harden’s last few starts as an Athletic, as scouts noted decreased fastball velocity and a lack of sliders and splitters, pitches which apparently put more stress on the righthander’s arm. In an article by Chicago Tribune writer Dave van Dyck, a scout commented on Harden’s recent outings:
“ One other scout who watched said Harden has changed since the injuries, throwing “only fastballs and changeups, no sliders or splitters,” and that he topped out about 90-92 m.p.h. on the radar gun. Earlier in the year his fastball had been clocked at 94 m.p.h.”
Those concerns aside, Harden’s stuff sure looked good to the San Francisco Giants on Saturday. In his North Side debut, Harden whiffed 10 hitters in 5.1 innings pitched, allowing just 5 hits, 3 walks and zero runs. So, how did Harden stifle San Francisco, and is his stuff indeed “down” relative to what we have come to expect from the flamethrower? To answer those questions, let’s take a look at Harden’s Pitch F/X data from his most recent outing.
The chart on the right shows the vertical and horizontal movement (in inches) that Harden got on his pitches against the Giants, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. The X axis shows the amount of horizontal movement on Harden’s pitches, while the Y axis shows the amount of vertical movement on the pitches. The chart is from the view of the catcher, so pitches with a negative horizontal (X axis) value are tailing in on a righthanded hitter. Pitches with a low vertical (Y axis) value are moving down in the strike zone; the lower the Y value, the more downward movement the pitch has (click on the picture to see a full-size image of the chart).
Type MPH X(In.) Z(In.) #Thrown
FB 93.29 -3.86 11.89 60
CH 86.78 -2.51 5.85 28
SL 86.30 -0.91 5.05 8
Type is the type of pitch thrown. FB=Fastball, CH=Changeup, SL=Slider. MPH is the average initial velocity of the pitch. X is the amount of horizontal movement on the pitch. Remember, a negative X value means the pitch is moving toward a righthanded batter. Z is the amount of vertical movement on the pitch. The lower the Z value, the more downward movement on the pitch.
Perhaps Harden’s fastball was ordinary against the Angels (he claimed to experience a “dead arm” period), but his heater was excellent in his Cubs debut. Harden’s average fastball velocity was nearly 93.3 MPH, and he challenged hitters high in the zone. Harden’s 4-seamer (a pitch which generally has less horizontal movement and a higher vertical value) had about 11.9 inches of vertical break. This is the sort of pitch that gets classified as a “rising” fastball. The ball does not actually rise on the way to home plate (added backspin on 4-seamers causes the ball to “sink” less than other pitches). Vertical movement instead measures how much less the ball fell than a pitch thrown without spin. For comparison, the league average heater has 9.78 inches of vertical break. Harden’s fastball is a true power pitch, with good velocity and plenty of vertical movement.
Harden also relied heavily upon his changeup, pulling the string 28 times during his start. Harden’s change actually fades away from lefties less than his fastball does (-2.51 X, compared to -3.86 X on the fastball) and the speed differential is between his cheese and his changeup is modest (6.51 MPH). So, what makes the pitch so effective? It’s the tremendous difference in vertical movement between the two pitches: Harden’s changeup is thrown over 6 inches lower in the zone than his fastball (5.05 Z, 11.89 Z on the fastball). Hitters gear up for Harden’s sizzling high fastball, only to see Harden “pull the string”, leaving the poor sap flailing or making a futile attempt to check-swing.
Indeed, Harden appears to have become primarily a fastball/changeup artist. He scarcely used his slider against the Giants, and threw nary a splitter. Harden’s slider caught far too much of the plate, featuring neither great horizontal movement (-0.91 X) or vertical tilt (5.05 Z).
A look at Harden’s pitching data over at FanGraphs confirms that the lack of splitters is not just a one-start anomaly- the righty has nearly shelved his once bread-and-butter offering:
2007:
Pitch %Thrown
Fastball 62.4
Slider 2.6
Changeup 16.0
Splitter 19.0
2008:
Pitch %Thrown
Fastball 62.4
Slider 5.1
Changeup 26.3
Splitter 6.3
Harden’s percentage of splitters thrown has plummeted from 19% in 2007 to 6.3% in 2008, a decrease of 12.7%. Perhaps in an attempt to guard against injury, Harden has used the pitch sparingly, instead relying far more heavily upon his changeup (26.3% in ‘08, 16% in ‘07).
In conclusion, Harden’s stuff was plenty good against the Giants. His fastball velocity was right in line with his career norms, and featured its typically excellent vertical movement. Harden’s changeup was also downright nasty, with a great amount of difference in vertical movement between his heater and change. Harden has essentially become a two-pitch pitcher, scrapping the splitter to conserve his arm. Still, both of those pitches are plus offerings and complement one another very well. If Harden can remain upright (perhaps the biggest “if” in the game), he should continue to make hitters look silly on a regular basis.
K-Rod To Test Free-Agency
According to the Los Angeles Times, Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez has told the media that he will indeed test the free-agent market after this year. “I’m going to go out there and explore the market” Frankie said, “If I wait(ed) six years, why not wait another two and a half months?”
The 26-year old closer has a career 2.37 ERA and 184 saves. He will most likely set the record for a closer’s contract, as he’s still very young . Who is going to pony up the money you ask? Well, if worse comes to worse, Rodriguez hasn’t ruled out resigning with the Halos.
Ibanez to Mets?
Anthony Reiber of Newsday believes that the New York Mets are going to make a run at 36-year old outfielder Raul Ibanez to replace the seriously-injured Moises Alou and help New York’s outfield depth. Raul is in the last year of his contract, so if the move doesn’t work out they could always settle for the compensation picks. He’s hitting .277 with 10 HR and 53 RBI this year.
I think this is a deal the Mets need to make, as they need outfield help quite badly, with Carlos Beltran as the only adequate outfielder out there. Ibanez was a teammate of Beltran’s back in the Kansas City Royals days, and Beltran had great things to say about Raul when asked if he would like for the Mets to acquire the left-hander.
Indians claim former #1 overall pick Bullington off waivers from Pirates
Cleveland Indians
Claimed RHP Bryan Bullington off waivers from the Pirates.
TG Analysis
The first overall selection in the 2002 Amateur Draft, Bullington will always be known to Pirates fans as “not B.J. Upton.” The Ball State product was a frustrating example of the team’s frugality in player development, as the modestly talented righthander was selected more for his signability than for his pitching prowess. Bullington received a $4M signing bonus (B.J. got $4.6M), and the Pirates have 18.1 innings and a 5.29 ERA to show for it, while the Rays received a six years of team control over a star-caliber player. The Bullington selection became a particular sore spot for the Bucs, as scouting directors could have played “pin the tail on the prospect” and came away with a building-block player; other ‘02 first round picks include Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Jeff Francoeur and Joe Blanton.
Bullington, 27, gets by on a modest repertoire: a high-80’s fastball with some sink (he lost some velocity following labrum surgery that cost him the entire ‘06 season), a slightly above-average slider and a show-me changeup. The 6-5, 220 pounder just does not miss many bats (6.2 K/9 at the AAA level), but his control is relatively sharp (2.95 BB/9). 2008 has not been kind to Bullington: in 75 innings tossed at AAA Indianapolis, he has surrendered 90 hits, posting a 60/25 K/BB to go along with a 5.52 ERA. Bullington is a long shot to enjoy any sort of sustained success at the major league level; his profile is indistinguishable from dozens of other hurlers toiling in AAA.
M’s release 1B Richie Sexson
Seattle Mariners
Released First Baseman Richie Sexson.
TG Analysis
Though Sexson has had plenty of company in futility (8 Mariner position players have posted a negative VORP), perhaps no player better represents Seattle’s unenviable combination of exorbitant price and mediocre performance. The finally tally for Sexson and the M’s: 4 years, $50M and a .244/.344/.474 line, including a paltry .218/.315/.381 2008 performance that would make most shortstops blush.
Of course, it’s rather unfair to single out Richie’s undeserved riches without mentioning some other high-priced culprits:
‘08 Salary VORP
Sexson $14M 0.1
Washburn $9.85M 1.6
Batista $9M -16.8
Vidro $8.5M -9.3
Silva $7M -6.0
Johjima $5.2M -8.8
So, for a combined $53.55M, the M’s have received a grand total of -39.2 VORP. 10 VORP is generally considered to be worth about 1 win, so the Mariners have paid nearly 54 million dollars to six players who have contributed nearly 4 wins below replacement level. In other words, Seattle is paying star-level money to guys who are playing worse than your garden-variety AAA player would. Yikes.
With Sexson getting the Old Yeller treatment, the M’s will go with Jose Vidro (.214/.260/.315) and Miguel Cairo (.222/.227/.272) at first for the time being. It would be funny if it weren’t so darned sad.
Cardinals place LHP Mulder on DL; recall LHP Garcia
St. Louis Cardinals
TG Analysis
Sadly, Mulder’s career may well have reached its nadir. Just 16 pitches into his first major league start in ten months, Mulder was removed with shoulder discomfort. The 6-6 lefty’s struggles hardly come as a surprise, though, as multiple shoulder injuries, a plummeting K rate and a lowered arm slot (a concession to those shoulder woes) conspired to stunt Mulder’s career. If this is all she wrote, the former Big Three member goes out with a 4.18 ERA (good for a 106 ERA+) and two All-Star appearances, coming in 2003 and 2004.
In happier news, the Cardinals have called upon another well-regarded, groundballing lefty in Garcia. A 22nd round selection out of Mission, Texas in the 2005 Amateur Draft, Garcia features a low-90’s sinker and a plus curve, mixing in an occasional changeup that needs some polish. The 6-1, 200 pounder has split the 2008 campaign between AA Springfield (35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 41/16 K/BB) and AAA Memphis (68.2 IP, 4.59 ERA, 57/25 K/BB), burning plenty of worms in the process (62 GB% at AA, 56% at AAA). Whether Garcia (likely to pitch out of the ‘pen initially) is ready for primetime is debatable- his BB/9 at the AA/AAA levels is 3.65- but as a lefty with groundball tendencies and a good hook, he has the look of a solid mid-rotation starter in the long run.
TG Analysis: The Harden Deal
Oakland Athletics
At first glance, it may seem downright odd for the A’s (49-41, 53-37 Pythagorean record) to make a move seemingly centered on 2009 and beyond. However, upon further examination, Oakland’s first-half success is at least partially built on a tenuous foundation.
The 2008 Athletics have been, without question, an excellent run-prevention outlet. Longtime reliever Justin Duchscherer has made a rather seamless transition into the starting rotation, and trade goodies Dana Eveland and Greg Smith have performed admirably. Still, all three are likely due for some degree of regression in the second half of the season:
ERA FIP
Duchscherer 1.78 3.21
Eveland 3.50 3.83
Smith 3.62 4.23
Perhaps Oakland’s league-leading defense could help the trio outperform their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) to some extent, but those are rather large gaps to overcome. Add in the possibility that all three face an increased risk of fatigue as they eclipse previous highs in innings pitched, and it’a easy to envision more modest performances in the second half.
So, with 60% of the starting rotation likely to regress and a rather tepid offensive attack (22nd in team Equivalent Average) unlikely to plate enough runs to make up the run differential, the A’s decided to take the long-term view, which brings us back to Harden’s abrupt departure from the Bay.
So, was letting Harden go at a “sell high” point (that is, a period of time in which he’s not coming off of or about to enter a lengthy DL stint) the correct move? Unfortunately, any discussion of the uber-talented righthander must mention his injury history, which likely depressed his trade value to some extent; in a Utopian society in which Harden is ache-free, he likely nets a package equal to or in excess of what Dan Haren brought this past offseason.
Alas, we do not live in that world. By trading the flame-throwing Canadian, the A’s essentially exchanged Harden’s intermittent excellence for Gallagher’s probable adequacy, two moderately valuable spare parts and a catching prospect with some positive offensive attributes.
Sean Gallagher, 22, is the most likely candidate to reap immediate rewards for the A’s. Originally a 12th round selection out of a Florida high school in the 2004 Amateur Draft, the righthander was a modestly-regarded prospect during his first couple of years in the organization. His performances in the low minors were impressive, but his chunky frame and modest fastball (he sat in the high-80’s) led some to peg him as a future middle reliever. Gallagher has since lost some weight, gained a few ticks on his fastball (now 90-93 MPH) and refined his secondary pitches (above-average curveball, solid change). The 6-1, 210 pounder has split to 2008 season between AAA Iowa (29 IP, 3.10 ERA, 30/9 K/BB) and the Cubbies (58.2 IP, 4.45 ERA, 49/22 K/BB). Gallagher seems likely to carve out a niche at the major league level. However, it is difficult to envision him turning into more than a solid 3rd or 4th starter, what with good-not-great stuff and ordinary command.
Eric Patterson, 25, was also a product of the 2004 draft, snatched up in the 8th round out of Georgia Tech. Corey’s little brother is a lefty-hitter with a decent base of offensive skills: he draws a fair amount of walks, makes frequent contact, and can sting an occasional pitch into the gap or over the fence. Patterson turned in a solid 2007 season at AAA Iowa (.297/.359/.457 with a 9.5 BB% and 14.5 K%) and has shown a little more sock in a repeat performance in 2008 (.320/.356/.517), though his walk rate is down (5.5%) and his whiffs are up (20.5%). Perhaps the 5-11, 170 pounder was trying to play the big man’s game to garner Chiacgo’s attention; the club had seemingly become disinterested in Patterson due to his fielding struggles at second base. Patterson is not especially young and is unlikely to get much better, but his current base of skills give him the chance to be a league-average player at an up-the-middle position, with the worst-case scenario involving his carving out a career as an offensive-minded utilityman. Should the A’s be able to stomach his D at the keystone, Patterson could be a low-cost replacement for Mark Ellis, as something of a poor man’s Ray Durham (PECOTA’s second most comparable player to Patterson).
Speaking of players with whom that Cubs had become disinterested, that brings us to Matt Murton (26). The redheaded outfielder was originally obtained from the Red Sox in the 4-team mega-deal that also brought Nomar Garciaparra to the Friendly Confines in July of 2004. Though Murton has a career .294/.362/.448 major league line, the Cubs seemingly became disillusioned with his shortcomings: namely, the lack of brute, over-the-fence strength and a propensity to take circuitous routes in the outfield. Murton is no star, and on a first-division club like Chicago’s he probably is more of a good fourth outfielder/platoon guy, but you have to feel for a guy who has a decent amount of major league success who then gets stuck in the corn fields of Iowa. Murton’s arrival likely means less toxic doses of Emil Brown (.243/.283/.366), so A’s fans can at least take solace in that regard.
Josh Donaldson, 22, was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft out of Auburn. The righthanded hitter got off to a blistering start as a professional at Low-A Boise (.346/.470/.605) and ranked as Chicago’s 7th-best prospect entering the season, per Baseball America. 2008, however, has brought disappointing results: a .217/.276/.349 line at Class-A Peoria. Donaldson’s bat was considered to be ahead of his glove (he converted from third base to catcher as a sophomore at Auburn), so the righthanded hitter will need to pick up the pace.
It’s difficult not to harbor ambiguous feelings regarding Oakland’s trade haul. Based solely on pure talent, bidding Harden and Gaudin farewell for a cadre of adequate young talent feels underwhelming. However, Harden’s tenuous health must be factored into the equation, as it limits whatever bounty could be acquired. Harden delivers star-caliber starts when available, but Gallagher will likely provide 30 starts or so a year with an ERA between 4 and 4.50; that might not get your blood pumping, but that has plenty of value in today’s market. If the A’s receive a league-average starter (Gallagher) and an offensive-minded solution at second base (Patterson), then this exchange will not be viewed with any rueful emotions.
Chicago Cubs
Harden’s arrival in the Windy City has the potential to significantly alter a Cubs rotation that features a few more question marks- Ryan Dempster’s potential to turn back into a pumpkin (career 4.69 ERA), Zambrano’s achy shoulder, Jason Marquis’ occasional drubbings- than one would desire from a team that has legitimate designs on capturing a World Series ring.
The 6-1, 195 pounder has positively tantalizing stuff: mid-90’s gas, coupled with a devastating splitter and changeup. On a per-inning basis, Harden has been one of the very best starting pitchers in the major leagues over course of his career:
IP ERA K/9 BB/9 ERA+
541.2 3.42 8.69 3.85 127
Of course, while the Cubs could use another rotation stalwart, Harden is about the furthest thing from a sure commodity himself. The diminutive Canadian has a DL history that might eclipse War and Peace in length: A stint this year for a shoulder strain, two last year with shoulder maladies, two in 2006 with back and elbow issues and one in 2005 for a strained oblique.
Why is Harden so darned injury-prone? Well, his mechanics have been the subject of much debate over the years. Harden’s delivery is basically the antithesis of the “tall and fall” style, as Harden uses an aggressive “step-over” motion (See the link for a far better explanation) that triggers a massive amount of force toward home plate. That’s considered a good thing, efficiency-wise, and even those with expertise in the field have a difficult time figuring out why Harden is so frequently nicked up. If there is one “no-no” in Harden’s delivery, it appears as though he lets the “ball pick up the elbow”, which can lead to unnecessary strain on the Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL). To better explain this, here’s a quote from an excellent piece from Carlos Gomez at The Hardball Times:
“If I were to draw a straight line connecting his elbow to the wrist, do you see how his wrist is cocked upwards with the ball “higher” than that line? Check out the Harden-Cain clip above and focus on Matt Cain’s arm action. Notice the difference? I like Cain’s MUCH more because the elbow “picks the ball up.” In Harden’s case, the ball and wrist pick the elbow up.”
Mechanical flaws? Genetics? The simple fact that throwing overhand with incredible force is an unnatural physical act that taxes the shoulder and elbow? I sure don’t know. But watching Harden’s brilliance continually stunted by injury is incredibly frustrating.
Chad Gaudin, 25, is the lesser light acquired in the deal, though he may have some value to a Chicago bullpen that has relied excessively on power arm Carlos Marmol in the first half of the season (Marmol has appeared in 47 games and seems to be feeling the effects of the workload). Something of a journeyman prior to landing in Oakland (both the Rays and the Jays discarded the righthander, despite a stellar minor league dossier: 2.71 ERA, 7.96 K/9, 2.51 BB/9), Gaudin got the chance to start in 2007, with lukewarm results. Gaudin missed some bats (154K in 199.1 IP), but he also walked an even 100 batters and did not have a pitch to keep lefty hitters at bay (southpaws hit .282/.389/.445). Transitioned to the bullpen in 2008, Gaudin has done decent work, posting a 3.59 ERA in 62.2 frames, whiffing 44 and issuing a more reasonable 17 free passes. Gaudin has actually shown a reverse platoon split in ‘08, holding lefties to a .264/.311/.344 line while righthanders have managed a .261/.325/.409 showing.
Harden’s acquisition essentially amounts to GM Jim Hendy purchasing a lottery ticket, the cost of which was fair but not overwhelmingly inhibiting. There is always the chance that Harden’s arm goes “boom” during his next pitch, so his acquisition cannot be viewed as a slam-dunk improvement. However, should he remain healthy, Harden will be a boon to Chicago’s chances of making the year 1908 an obsolete as 1917 and 1918.
TG Analysis: The Sabathia Deal
Cleveland Indians
In a trade involving a player the magnitude of C.C. Sabathia, it is easy to get caught up in the name value of the player and therefore expect the Indians to receive the keys to the Milwaukee farm system. While losing a home-grown ace is surely a tough pill to swallow for the Tribe, it is important to keep in mind what exactly Cleveland was offering: namely, a 3-month rental of Sabathia, an exlusive negotiating window to work out a deal before free agency hits, and compensatory draft picks, should the big lefty take his services elsewhere this winter.
As such, one cannot really compare Cleveland’s haul to, say, what the A’s received in exchange for Dan Haren (under contract at a below-market salary through 2010) or even what the Twins picked up for a full year of Johan Santana. Hindsight being 20/20, it is easy (and completely unfair) to say that the Indians should have began shipping Sabathia’s services around prior to this point, but Clevaland came into the season with legitimate designs on an extended playoff run. A combination of injury (Victor Martinez, Fausto Carmona), decline (Hafner, though he could fit into both categories) and some poor luck (Cleveland’s Pythagorean record is 43-45; its actual record is 37-51) have conspired to wreak havoc on Cleveland’s playoff chances.
With an unexpectedly poor first half and only a faint glimmer of a chance to re-sign Sabathia (if that), the Indians essentially had to choose between letting C.C. play out the string in Cleveland while collecting a couple of draft picks, or bidding the 27 year-old farewell for a package of its own choosing. Given those two choices, it appears as though the Tribe should be relatively pleased with its bounty.
Matt LaPorta, 23, is without question the principal player in the deal from Cleveland’s vantage point. The 6-2, 215 pounder had a down season as a junior at the University of Florida, suffering through an oblique injury that caused his draft stock to drop. The Red Sox selected him as a 14th rounder in the 2006 Amateur Draft, but LaPorta spurned the Sox and returned for his senior season. A rare college senior selected highly in the draft, LaPorta was picked 7th overall out of Florida by the Brewers in the 2007 Amateur Draft following a monster campaign. The righthanded hitter has done nothing but mash as a professional, compiling a career .294/.395/.616 minor league line in 411 at-bats, including a colossal .291/.404/. 584 line with 20 home runs at AA Huntsville in 2008. With a patient approach (13 BB% in ‘08), light-tower pop (.288 ISO) and a reasonable strikeout rate for a big slugger (17.1 K%), LaPorta’s bat will play very well at the highest level. His other tools are nothing to write home about: a below average runner with limited range, LaPorta was playing left field more out of deference to Prince Fielder’s grip on first base than anything else. Don’t be surprised to see LaPorta mashing at Jacobs Field by the end of the season, quite possibly with a move down the defensive spectrum to first base.
Rob Bryson, 20, is a long way from the big leagues, but the righthander may well be the second most valuable commodity in Cleveland’s trade bounty. The 6-1, 200 pounder was a shrewd signing by Milwaukee, who selected Bryson as a draft-and-follow in the 31st round of the 2006 Amateur Draft. The Brewers eventually coaxed Bryson to sign for $300K, and the early results are rather impressive. Equipped with a low-90’s heater and a solid slider, Bryson has racked up 143 punchouts in 109 career innings split between Rookie-Level Helena and Low-A West Virginia. In 55 frames for the Power this season, the Seminole Community College alum has posted a 4.25 ERA with a 73/20 K/BB. As is the case with many young arms, Bryson has work to do with his changeup and must prove himself durable, but he has a nice base of skills to grow upon.
Zach Jackson, 25, has gone from well-regarded pitching prospect to a fringe major leaguer over the past few seasons. Originally selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round of the 2004 draft, Jackson was shipped to Milwaukee as part of the Lyle Overbay trade in December of 2005. The 6-5, 200 pound lefty performed admirably in the low minors, but his showings at AAA over the past few seasons inspire little confidence. In 380.1 career innings at the AAA level, Jackson has posted a 4.95 ERA, with 6.5 K/9 and 3.87 BB/9. 2008 has been something of a nightmare for the Louisville/Texas A&M product: in 57.1 innings pitched for Nashville, Jackson has a Boeing-level 7.85 ERA and a 34/18 K/BB. With a modest fastball, ordinary command and only slight groundball tendencies, Jackson’s best hope is to become as a long reliever/12th man on a major league staff.
While the player-to-be-named later is unknown at this point, popular sentiment points to either third base prospect Taylor Green or outfield prospect Michael Brantley.
Green, 21, was also a product of the now defunct draft-and follow system, snatched up by the Brewers in the 25th round of the 2005 draft. Green has posted a .295/.378/.444 line at High-A Brevard County in 2008. The 5-10, 180 pounder has only modest power and is just adequate at third, but his plate discipline and contact skills give him a chance to carve out a Bill Mueller-type career.
Brantley, 21, is a lefty hitter who can draw a walk and put the bat on the ball. A 7th round selection on the 2005 draft, Brantley is hitting .324/.403/.412 at AA Huntsville. His control of the strike zone is impressive (12.4 BB%, 5.1 K%), but Brantley’s lack of power (.088 ISO) is concerning, given that his above-average athleticism just hasn’t translated to the field. If Brantley can’t stick in center (his routes are often inauspicious), then he profiles as merely a good fourth outfielder at the highest level.
All things considered, the Indians did fairly well to acquire a blue-chip, MLB-ready slugger and some other relatively interesting youngsters. Cleveland likely received more value out of this deal than the team would have by standing pat and collecting two draft picks, and that’s all that really matters in the end.
Of course, the decision to deal a certified ace begs the question, what’s next? Have the Indians come to the conclusion that its window of opportunity has closed, and will therefore offer up other players as well?
That seems unlikely. The Indians are typically considered a youthful team, but outside of Grady Sizemore (25), many of Cleveland’s core players are currently in their primes: Cliff Lee (29), Jake Westbrook (30, rehabbing from Tommy John), Jhonny Peralta (26), Ben Francisco (26), Victor Martinez (27) and Travis Hafner (31). Given that state of affairs, the more likely scenario involves the 2009 Tribe hoping for improved health from Carmona, inserting LaPorta into the lineup and perhaps using some of the C.C. Fund to add another starter or add more punch to a rather listless lineup. In terms of further July dealings, the Indians may ship out four corners man Casey Blake to give Andy Marte one last chance to reclaim his former promise, and may also look to flip Paul Byrd for a B-level prospect and open up a rotation spot for someone like lefty David Huff, but I wouldn’t expect a 2001-style cleanout.
Milwaukee Brewers
With Carsten Charles Sabathia now in the fold, the Brewers have tremendously improved its chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1982. The 27 year-old lefty has been as dominant as ever in 2008, save for a few particularly nasty starts that have skewed his overall numbers; Sabathia’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is 3.25 in ‘08, as opposed to 3.22 during his Cy Young Award-winning 2007 campaign. The 6-7, 275 pounder fools many a batter with his dastardly fastball-slider combo, mixing in a decent changeup from time to time. With a 92-95 MPH heater and pinpoint command, Sabathia is death on southpaws (.244/.304/.274), and it’s not like righthanders have much of any success either (.251/.315/.390).
In Sabathia, the Brewers acquire one of the top-5 starters in the game. Coupled with righthander Ben Sheets, Milwaukee possess a formidable 1-2 punch of power and precision, one that matches up against any team in baseball. Add in an offense that is starting to perform up to its talent level (team OPS by month: .710 April, .741 May, .798 June, .953 July and an improving Manny Parra (2.59 ERA in June), and one could make an argument that the Brewers are the second best team in the National League. Of course, the bullpen could use some reinforcements as well: the Brew Crew ‘pen ranks just 19th in team Adjusted Runs Prevented.
While the Brewers are clearly gunning for a pennant in the present, the contract statuses of both Sabathia and Sheets present the organization with something of a safety net, as both will undoubtedly qualify as Type-A Free Agents this upcoming offseason. With an impressive offensive nucleus (and don’t forget remaining prospects Alcides Escobar, Matt Gamel and Brett Lawrie), talented pre-arbitration arms (Parra, a rehabbing Yovanni Gallardo) and a bushel of compensatory picks to come should to team fail to re-up Sabathia and/or Sheets, the Brewers are in a position to have the best of both worlds by winning now and winning later.
It’s Official: C.C. Heads to Brew Town
The C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes has officially ended, as the 6′7″ left-hander will be heading to the Milwaukee Brewers in return for outfielder Matt LaPorta, left-handed starter Zach Jackson, Single-A hurler Rob Bryson, plus a player-to-be-named-later.
The Brewers now have one of the best 1-2 punches in the league, with Sabathia joining ace Ben Sheets atop the rotation. There’s a minimal chance that Sabathia will resign with Milwaukee after this season, as he’s guaranteed huge money in the free-agent market, but at least Milwaukee will have the 2007 Cy-Young winner under their reign as they prepare to go deep this postseason. C.C. started the 2008 season slow, but has turned it on in the last month and now boasts a 3.83 ERA and 123 K.
TG Analysis
On paper it looks like the Indians could of got more for big C.C., but it would of been difficult to get a package with one player included who is the quality of Matt LaPorta. The 23-year old outfielder is the Brewers’ minor-league player of the month for June, after he batted .381 with 2 HR and 24 RBI. He seems to have an above-average major league bat, but his defense must improve if he wants to be a major-league outfielder. Matt should be excited to go to Cleveland, because at least he has a chance to be a designate-hitter, something that would have been impossible with Milwaukee.
As for the other pieces to the puzzle, Zach Jackson has been quite terrible in the major-leagues, but has put up decent numbers down in the minor-leagues. His best season came in 2005 for High-A, went he went 8-1 with a 2.88 ERA in 59.2 innings.
Rob Bryson seems to be quite the project. The fastball/slider pitcher has a R