MVN - Most Valuable Network

APB out on Bad Jorge

Since the All-Star Break, the Rockies seem to have found another keeper for the rotation.  Jorge De La Rosa has scrapped his bad side, with a 5-2 record and a 2.90 ERA since the break.  One appearance by Bad Jorge convinced the team to temporarily move him to the bullpen, but since he returned to the rotation, Bad Jorge has not been seen over his last four starts.  Either this is just a temporary run of good luck, or Bad Jorge has been scrapped for the most part and we’ll just be seeing Good Jorge from now on.

Yesterday’s game against the Giants was just another example.  Jorge pitched another gem, going seven innings and giving up four hits while striking out six and walking just one.  While we can’t say for certain that Bad Jorge is gone for good, Jorge seems to have exorcised his demons and is finally becoming the pitcher that his considerable talent always said that he could become.

While Jorge may never develop into an ace, with Cook and Jimenez around, the Rockies don’t need him to be an ace.  They just need him to be a good #3 or #4 starter (probably number four.)  Assuming that Bad Jorge doesn’t return over the offseason, that gives the Rockies at least three solid starting pitchers heading into 2009.  And now, there are signs that Jeff Francis (2.42 ERA over his last four starts) is returning to form.  If all of these developments hold up, the Rockies not only will have a solid foundation for the rotation in 2009, but they’ll have a solid rotation all the way around with Cook, Jimenez, Francis, and De La Rosa.  They just need to find a fifth starter (and I’m assuming they’ll be ending the Livan Hernandez Experience well before 2009 starts.)  The one problem there is that I don’t have confidence in any of the three of Jason Hirsh, Franklin Morales, and Greg Reynolds right now, that any of those three would be more than just a guy you throw out there every five days because modern baseball protocol says you have to have a five-man rotation.  If the Rockies can’t find anybody decent off the waiver wire or in a trade for a case of cold Coors Light (or, heck, any of the three aforementioned), I’d almost as soon recommend going with a four-man rotation.

In other news, it’s now September, and the Rockies should be making September callups any day now.  The Rockies clearly would like to see what Dexter Fowler can do in the big leagues, but they have to balance that with apparently still holding out hope that they are going to be a playoff team (I guess they figure if they were a playoff team last year with Willy Taveras roaming center, they can do it again.)  Considering that Clint Hurdle has insisted for this long on playing Taveras when Ryan Spilborghs is clearly a better option (okay, Willy can steal bases and his defense is better, but Spilborghs is a better hitter), I’m not holding out much hope on Dexter getting that much playing time.  What the Rockies really, really should do is to give Fowler some significant playing time in September, much as they did in 2006 with Tulo and Iannetta, though neither exactly hit the ground running in 2007 (Tulo eventually snapped out of it and put together a fine rookie season, while Iannetta never did, though he’s better now.)  Fowler could then come into spring training knowing that the job is his if he plays well.

There aren’t a whole lot of others who I’m itching to see in September.  Most of the others who will be up are guys we’ve seen before: Sullivan, Koshansky, and Nix are probably going to get a call.  The thing is, most of the guys that Rockies fans really should be excited about (Jhoulys Chacin, I’m looking in your general direction) are still in the low minors and we won’t be seeing them for a while, unless the Rockies get some crazy hair and make Chacin their fifth starter in 2009.  That would be interesting.  But it wouldn’t really get the team anywhere, except probably to screw up his development.

Rockies ponder waiver-wire trade of Fuentes

The news item was brief, but it said everything you needed to know.  Earlier this week, the Rockies placed Brian Fuentes (and Willy Taveras) on waivers, possibly in an attempt to see if they could work out a waiver-wire deal for the lefthander.

I didn’t think trading Fuentes was a bad idea at the trade deadline.  Heck, I thought there was almost no chance that Fuentes would still be a Rockie in August, but that’s exactly what has happened.  But I think trading him now is a bad idea, even as he’s on the bereavement list and not with the team at all.

For one thing, the first team on the waiver line that can reasonably call itself a contender is the Dodgers.  The Dodgers probably could use Fuentes, and essentially have the power to block any deal the Rockies want to make.  The Rockies don’t want Fuentes going to the Dodgers: since the team’s only two and a half games behind the Dodgers in the standings, if we consider ourselves contenders at all (which we might be after the recent hot streak and the Dodgers and Snakes continuing to flounder), trading Fuentes to a team we’re chasing is a bad idea.

And the other point is that any prospect worth his salt is probably going to get claimed before he gets to the Rockies.  At this point, the Rockies are better off letting Fuentes hang around, then letting him walk at the end of the season and taking some compensation picks.  It’s hard to see how the Rockies get a player back who’s worth much more than a compensation pick, anyway.

Basically, now the Rockies just need to play out the string with Fuentes around and see what happens at the end of the season.  No need to take a lesser prospect and let somebody else have the compensation picks.

Walk-off from unlikely source keeps Rockies rolling

When I saw who had hit the game-winning home run in the 12th inning yesterday, I had to call a fellow Rockies fan to share in my disbelief.  The first thing I said to him when he picked up the phone was, “You’re never going to guess who hit a walk-off for the Rox today.”  He started guessing and probably went through the entire offensive roster and even a few of the starting pitchers before finally going with Omar Quintanilla.

Yeah, it was that kind of a shocking day for the Rockies, who were probably as shocked as the rest of us when Q launched a low-and-in pitch (note to all pitchers: every lefty loves the ball down there, even the light hitting ones) over the right field wall and propelled the good guys to victory.  But Q never would have gotten the chance to be the hero if the Rockies hadn’t been the recipients of even more good fortune in the ninth inning, when Matt Holliday reached on an error, moved to second on a balk, and then scored after Jay Bruce’s throw from right field after a flyout to try to prevent Holliday from advancing sailed into the stands.

Unfortunately, in the grand scheme of things, I can’t bring myself to say that the Rockies still have a chance anymore.  Despite this little bit of a hot streak, the Diamondbacks have been playing too well and are just too far out of reach.  Still, I really want to see this team finish strong and restore some hope for 2009.  Obviously, this year has been a disappointment on so many levels, but it hasn’t been so bad that the talent that propelled this team in ‘07 can’t find the winning path again next year.  Guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Jeff Francis, Todd Helton, and Manny Corpas all should be able to put forth better seasons than they have in this campaign.

Now, the Rockies head back out on the road to San Francisco, where they’ll have the joy of facing the two-headed monster of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.  Maybe this team will just continue to surprise and keep rolling.  To be honest, I’m not holding out hope, but if they do keep it going on the road, brace yourself for an onslaught of 2007 comparisons.  Still, I wouldn’t mind hearing some comparisons if it means we’re pushing ourselves back into contention.

Good Jorge not good enough for a Rockies win

One earned run over six innings wasn’t enough for Jorge De La Rosa to pick up a win on Thursday.  In fact, Jorge got the loss yesterday as the Dodgers avoided a sweep with a 3-1 win Thursday afternoon.  A couple of defensive miscues and a lack of offense were to blame for this one.

On the surface, Jorge has been awful for the Rockies, with a 5.86 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and 6-7 record.  Beneath the surface, however, Jorge hasn’t been that bad.  The walks (46 in 93.2 innings) are bad, but then Ubaldo Jimenez walks a lot of people as well and hasn’t been bad.  Any pitcher who strikes out more than a batter an inning is usually doing a pretty good job, and Jorge’s .341 BABIP explains away a lot of his problems.  Jorge has a lot of balls fall in for hits.  Again, the walks don’t help, but Jorge’s also had a lot of bad luck.

And that’s what yesterday’s defensive miscues and lack of run support were.  Most of the time, when your starting pitcher gives up four hits over six innings, you’re probably going to win.  Instead, the Rockies offense that was responsible for the recent five-game winning streak no-showed this one and saddled Jorge with the loss.

Yesterday’s result also underscores a disturbing trend regarding Up in the Rockies.  Basically, whenever we write bad things about the Rockies, they start playing well.  Whenever we write good things about them, they start playing poorly.  Yesterday’s loss came right on the heels of the whole “Rockies won’t die” speech of yesterday.  And remember when we thought the Rockies could be really, really good heading into the season?  Yeah, they responded with April.

Rockies win fifth in a row, still eight back

The 2008 Rockies, as disappointing as they’ve been, just refuse to die.

After an awful homestand that had me contemplating the Rockies’ obituary for the season, the Rockies decided to play the string out as they went on the road.  After a three-game sweep of the Nationals, the Rockies have gone into Los Angeles and taken the first two from the Dodgers.  A win tomorrow would give the Rockies a perfect 6-0 road trip.  Jorge De La Rosa goes against Derek Lowe in the finale.

Tonight’s game was decided in the ninth inning.  Remember when Danny Ardoin was our starting catcher?  Those were some dark days, but Ardoin finally helped the Rockies out tonight.  A throwing error on a Matt Holliday stolen base in the ninth allowed Holliday to go to third, which let him score the winning run on a Brad Hawpe single.  The most shocking thing in all of that is that it was Holliday’s twentieth stolen base of the season, and he’s only been thrown out once.  Sitting at 24 homers and 20 stolen bases, Holliday has an outside shot at being a 30-30 guy.  You don’t see too many guys who go 6′4″ and 235 swiping twenty bags.  Holliday probably won’t win the MVP this season, what with Albert Pujols having yet another great season and the Cardinals somewhat unexpectedly being contenders (and Pujols, despite several great seasons during his career, having only won one MVP), but he actually may be better this season than last.

Even with the Rockies playing great baseball right now, though, it’s still tough to imagine this season ending with a playoff appearance.  But it’s also nice to see that the team hasn’t given up on the season, even if some of us already have.  Eight games is a lot to make up in five and a half weeks, though.  A .500 record would be great, but at this point it may not happen.  Let’s just see if the team can get on a roll heading into 2009, and hope 2008 is just a one-year blip.

Rockies end horrific homestand with loss

15 games under .500. Nine games out in the division. Sixteen and a half out in the wild card.

Cool Standings gives the Rockies a 0.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.  0.4.  If you played out the remainder of the regular season 1000 times, the Rockies make the playoffs four times.  It’s been said all season that the Rockies were dead in the water in late 2007, but 2007 was never this hopeless.  It was a slim chance in mid-September, but it wasn’t 4 out of 1000.

Yesterday’s result offered no encouragement.  After being solid six turns through the rotation, Glendon Rusch finally fell apart and had a bad start, getting chased after a five-run fifth inning that gave the Diamondbacks a lead they never relinquished.  The offense couldn’t do a great deal against Dan Haren, though Matt Holliday did hit his 23rd homer of the season.

While we don’t think it’s quite time for the postmortem, we do have to ask: is 2008 a step back to take a big step forward in 2009?  Or was 2007 an aberration, and will the Rockies return to the 75- to 80-win franchise that they’ve been for much of their history?

As we’ve been pointing out all year long, the offense isn’t the problem with this team.  It’s not great, but it’s not a black hole, either.  The Rockies are very solid at the corners; assuming the Rockies don’t trade Holliday or Atkins this offseason, those two and Brad Hawpe should combine to form a formidable middle-of-the-order combo.  Considering how well he’s hitting, the Rockies need to find a place for Ian Stewart to play; sticking him back in AAA is a waste of his (and the Rockies’) time and putting him on the bench is useless.  A healthy Todd Helton — who turns 35 on Wednesday — would make that more difficult; the Rockies probably aren’t going to sit him, and his contract makes him nearly impossible to trade, but his back might not allow him to play much more than three or four days a week even when healthy.

That solves half the lineup.  A return to form by Troy Tulowitzki (hitting .237 now, which still ain’t gonna cut it) would help.  So would a big debut by Dexter Fowler, who should be ready sometime in 2009 (if not for Opening Day.)  Jeff Baker is solid offensively as second basemen go, and Chris Iannetta hits for power and draws walks, even if he’s only going to hit .260.  There are solid backups in Clint Barmes, Ryan Spilborghs, and Seth Smith.  Seriously, where’s the problem?  If the Rockies can find some way to get rid of Willy Taveras (53 steals is nice; .304 OBP is not), the offense in 2009 can be really special.

And the foundation is there for a solid pitching staff.  It’s strange to say it now, but the Rockies’ opening day staff in 2007 may have been the best in club history.  Francis and Cook were both solid, Rodrigo Lopez and Josh Fogg exceeded expectations, and Jason Hirsh was perfectly fine as the fifth starter.  With Ubaldo Jimenez looking like no worse than a solid number two guy, the Rockies have a strong one-two punch in him and Cook entering 2009.  A return to form by Francis would further solidify the rotation.  It’s on the Rockies to find two guys to fill out the rotation.  The farm system is pretty much barren right now: Franklin Morales has been pretty bad in AAA, and Jason Hirsh hasn’t been much better; Brandon Hynick has struggled mightily making the transition to AA; and Jhoulys Chacin and Aneury Rodriguez look good, but they’re both still a year or two off.  Jorge De La Rosa, we know, is only good every other start, and Taylor Buchholz is just so damn good in the late innings that the Rockies are probably grooming him to take over for Fuentes (assuming he departs in free agency.)

So it’s strange to say it, but as bad as this season has been, the Rockies could be just a solid number four starter away from contending for the playoffs in 2009.  Unless the Rockies plan on making a push for CC Sabathia, it’s on the Rockies to strike gold again, like they did in finding Lopez off the scrap heap prior to 2007.

Off-day fodder: Diamondbacks acquire Dunn, Rockies further doomed

Yeah, I’ve been calling it for weeks now.  The Diamondbacks all season have been a team that doesn’t look all that great, but they’ve managed to hang on to the division lead pretty much all season.  Starting on April 6, the Snakes have never been in worse than a tie for first.  On the flipside, since April 22, the Rockies have never been closer than six games out of first.   The Rockies spent exactly one day over .500 this season, and, barring some kind of miracle (the Rockies would need to play at a .667 clip the rest of the way just to reach .500), April 1 is going to be the only day this season that the Rockies were over .500.  Yeah, this has been a bad season.

But it hasn’t been so bad, simply because the division is so bad that the Rockies have been hanging around.  The team’s never really threatened to make a move in the standings (again, they’ve never been closer than six back, since April anyway), but aside from that truly horrific eight-game losing streak in late May and early June, the Rockies have never really made much of a backslide in the standings, either.

Now, though, the Diamondbacks just made a move to get Adam Dunn (for a B-level prospect, if that, and a couple of players to be named later.)  That, coupled with the Dodgers’ deadline acquisition of Manny Ramirez, and the Rockies’ lack of interest in making a move to improve the team (unless you call Livan Hernandez an improvement!), means that it’s going to take another miracle to make up the eight games the Rockies currently sit back in the standings.  84 wins could be enough to win the division, but to get there, the Rockies would need to go 31-11 down the stretch.  How hard is that to do?  Even last year’s team, with its miracle run to capture the wild card, went 27-15 over its last 42; the great September was balanced out by a floundering August.  Getting back to the playoffs won’t just require a miracle on the level of last year’s; it will require a miracle that will do last year’s miracle one better.

And just when the Diamondbacks come to town, their offense got better.  That’s not what we needed.