MVN - Most Valuable Network

7/4 Game Thread: Your New Francoeurless Braves

Well, Jeff Francoeur has been sent down. He really should have been sent down in 2006, when he was one of the worst position players in the major leagues, but now is better than never. Getting Chipper Jones back should have been a lift for the team. Seeing the back of Francoeur probably will not be. But it does make the team better. It is almost impossible to quantify how much he’s killed the team this year. Jason Perry has never played a day in the majors, but he’s hitting well in AAA, and it’s almost inconceivable that he could be worse than Frenchy. Brandon Jones didn’t do too terribly in his cup of coffee, and he’ll be back.

And now we get the Astros, who have the exact same record that we do, in a much worse division. It’s very likely that they’re worse than we are. We’ll be facing Brian Mohler, who’s apparently only 36 — I would have guessed 47. He’s been around forever. Also, he’s not good. He’s given up 10 homers in only 63 2/3 innings; hopefully we’ll be able to take advantage of that. We’ll counter with Tim Hudson, who’s been dynamite at home: a 2.24 ERA in 56 1/3 innings. He’s also an Astro-killer, as he has a Gibsonian 1.12 ERA against them in 3 starts.

On paper, I like our chances. Hopefully the new-look Braves will get off to a good start and make the front office look smart for sending Frenchy down, where he has belonged for some time now. If we’re really lucky, maybe he’ll relearn how to hit. First things first: let’s snap our five-game losing streak.

Francoeur Sent to AA Mississippi

As frustrated as I’ve been by his performance, I also feel for the guy.  There’s no doubt in my mind that he’s trying everything he can to emerge from his slump.  I heard that he spent his day off on Monday with his high school coach working on his hitting.  I also heard that he’s been hitting the cages after the games this week.  I’m not sure what else you can expect the guy to do. 

That being said, I think this is a mental issue.  I recently heard someone say that the game is 90% mental and the other 10% is all in your head.  Perhaps some time in Mississippi will help Francoeur clear his head and get his swing back. 

So, here’s to wishing Frenchy the best of luck and a swift return to Atlanta!

7/3 Game Thread: Can We At Least Not Get Swept?

This year, we’ve been swept four times (Rockies, Reds, Phillies, Cubs) and we’ve swept four times (Dodgers, Reds, Padres, Mets). Let’s try to keep that balance even. Going into the series, we were three games under .500, playing a team that had been playing horribly till they met us, and getting Chipper Jones back into the everyday lineup. Now, following consecutive shellackings of Charlie Morton and Jorge Campillo, we’ll be lucky if we can just break a four-game losing streak. And we’ll have to do it the hard way, facing Cole Hamels, pretty much the only good starting pitcher they have.

I’ve complained enough about the bad season, attempted to analyze the various sources of our ills, so I’ll spare you some of that for now. Instead, I’ll talk a little about Jair Jurrjens, our pitcher today. If you can believe it, he’s actually almost a half-run of ERA lower than Cole Hamels: 2.94 to 3.38, an ERA+ difference of 139 to 131. One reason for the difference is that, while Hamels has struck out substantially more batters and walked slightly fewer batters than Jurrjens, he has also allowed three times as many homers, 15 to 5. Jurrjens has also been getting a lot more ground balls, 50.7% to 38.6%, while he and Hamels have a nearly identical LD%, 21.4% to 21.7%.

Jair’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and change, with a slider he mixes in only occasionally. (In Josh Kalk’s PitchFX sample, Jair threw 65% fastballs, 32% changeups, and 3% sliders.) Despite Hamels’ famous change, he actually throws fewer changes and more breaking balls than Jair — 60% fastballs, 24% changeups, and 16% curveballs. But while Jair’s fastball is a little faster (92 on average, compared to around 90 for Cole), his change is too (84 to 80), so the spread in velocity isn’t as great.

The ERA difference doesn’t hold up in all of the advanged stats. While Jair maintains a slight edge in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, 3.31 to 3.69) and NRA (Neutralized Runs Allowed, 3.40 to 3.52), he’s actually got a worse xFIP (expected FIP, 3.95 to 3.72) and DERA (3.90 to 3.74). And Hamels maintains a sizeable edge in Pitching Runs Created, 59 to 45.

Jurrjens’ major advantage over Hamels this year has been his ability to limit the homer, a skill he also had in the minors. Hamels is generally vulnerable to the longball, as he yielded 25 last year, and 19 in only 23 starts in his rookie year. If the Braves can’t put him over the wall, they’ll have a lot of trouble with him: he’s already had 7 starts against us, and is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 47 2/3 innings.

Jair will be making his first start against the Phillies, and is coming off his best start of the year, 8 shutout innings on only three hits against the Blue Jays, the only game we won in that series. He seemed to be hitting a slight wall at the end of the spring, as 4 of 5 starts from May 16 to June 5 had game scores below 50 (the general line between an effective start and an ineffective one). But he’s put together three good starts in a row since then, capped by the gem in Toronto. Hamels’ last three starts have been 7 innings each, in which he has given up 2, then 3, then 4 runs respectively. Hopefully we can continue that streak by laying a 5-spot on him.

Let’s put up some crooked numbers and reclaim a bit of our dignity.

7/2 Game Thread: Braves vs. Phillies

Tonight the Braves (40-44) take on the Phillies (45-39) in the second game of a three-game series.  After last night’s disappointing performance by the Braves, I think we’re all hoping to see a very different team on the field tonight.

Pitching for the Braves tonight is right-hander, Jorge Campillo.  With a 3-2 record and 2.54 ERA, Campillo’s time with the big league club has shown that he could be a solid part of our rotation.  Campillo has faced the Phillies twice this season.  First, he appeared as a reliever in Philadelphia on May 15th, where he pitched three scoreless innings.  His next appearance against the Phillies was back on June 8th in Atlanta where he got no decision.  Campillo left that game after 7.1 innings pitched (and a career-high 105 pitches thrown) with the game tied 3-3. 

The Phillies will match Adam Eaton against Campillo.  Eaton is 2-6 this year with a 4.86 ERA.  This year has been a struggle for Eaton, as he didn’t receive his first decision until after his sixth start.  The road hasn’t been kind to Eaton either, as he’s 0-4 this year with a 4.29 ERA.  Braves fans are going to like this next stat, too: the Phillies have scored only three runs over Eaton’s last three starts.

Speaking of run support (or lack thereof), Campillo has suffered at the hands of his teammates as well.  The Braves have averaged fewer runs scored per game while Campillo is pitching (3.9) than any other starting pitcher with the exception of Jeff Bennett (3.3). 

The key tonight is going to be getting some runs on the board.  Gregor Blanco should be one of the men who can make that happen.  He’s hit safely in his last five games, boosting his average from .242 to .274.  In the past seven days, he’s 12-for-21 (.571) with three runs and three RBIs.  While Tex wasn’t the man last night, he could be tonight.  He has posted 11 homeruns and 32 RBIs in the past 31 days to lead the majors in RBIs and tie for second in homeruns during that time period.  Hopefully he can contribute tonight against Adam Eaton.

If hitting is our Achilles’ heel these days, the pitching staff is our golden shield.  I think it’s important to point out what an excellent job the Braves pitching staff has done this year, despite the swinging door that seems to have existed between the pitching staff and the DL.  The Braves lead the National League in team ERA (3.74) and opponents’ batting average (.247).  The bullpen is second in the majors with a .228 opponents’ batting average and eighth in the majors with a 3.42 ERA.  I think we’ve all been a little frustrated with how over-worked the bullpen has been this year, but the numbers don’t lie - pitching isn’t the problem.

Here’s to taking the next two from the Phils!

7/1 Game Thread: Can We Beat the Guys in First?

Double update You can listen to me on The Free Radical, an interview I did last Thursday.

Update This just in: Chipper’s (probably) gonna play tonight! I’d imagine this would be a big psychological lift for the team. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he was taken out in the late innings, but having him back — especially after we kept hearing he was headed back to the DL — is a huge, huge bonus.

Well, this series is kind of important. The good news is we’re catching the Phillies on their back feet, as they’re 3-11 in their last 14 games. The bad news is that we’re not much better, as we’re 6-8 in our last 14. But the composition of our teams is fairly different. With Chipper on the shelf, we can’t hit to save our life, but we have a pretty good pitching staff. (3.69 team ERA, best in the league; 3.85 starters’ ERA, best in the league, and 3.40 relievers’ ERA, third-best in the league.) Meanwhile, Philly leads the league in team ERA and has an awesome lineup, but an utterly mediocre pitching staff after Cole Hamels. They score a ton of runs, so it doesn’t matter that they give up a few more.

On the other hand, while Philly has a fantastic offense, many of the individual players are off their pace from a year ago. They don’t have a single regular batting over .300. Catcher Carlos Ruiz and Ryan Howard are both batting .215, and Jimmy Rollins and Howard both have OPS+ under 100. However, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell are still raking, and Jayson Werth and Chris Coste have thrived in backup roles. If we had a backup outfielder and backup catcher as good as Werth and Coste have been, we’d be in first place, and I’m so not kidding. So it’s a balanced attack, especially as you can’t really take your eyes off Rollins and Howard, who may have already had their career years, but are still dangerous hitters nonetheless.

The starting rotation is another story. They aren’t good. The infuriating Brett Myers has pitched his way out of the starting rotation again, and the rest of the guys aren’t much better. Adam Eaton is pitching slightly worse than his career 4.71 ERA, Kyle Kendrick still can’t strike anybody out, and Jamie Moyer is a 45-year-old #2 starter a year off a 5.01 ERA. All three have actually been overachieving, and their results still haven’t been very good. The one thing their rotation does have is durability: their top 5 starters have started every game this year. With Myers’ ineffectiveness, that will change, but thanks to Kris Benson’s utter stinkbomb in AAA, their minor leagues don’t have too many good options waiting in the wings. Pitching was always their weak point going into the year, and now would be an excellent time to exploit that weakness.

Charlie Morton goes tonight, and will face another tough challenge, following starts against the Rangers, Angels, and Brewers. Thus far, he’s pitched like he belongs. If we can sweep the Phillies, we’ll be back at .500. Keep your eyes on the prize, guys.

Ballgirl Makes Amazing Catch

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Response to Evan Brunell: Trade Tex for Youkilis? Absolutely.

Evan Brunell of Fire Brand of the American League (and CEO of MVN) just posted a crazy idea: trading Mark Teixeira to the Red Sox for Kevin Youkilis (and a prospect like Michael Bowden). I’ve been pretty constant in my belief that Tex will not bring back much of anything worthwhile in a trade, and Evan acknowledges that it’s unlikely: “I’m not naive enough to think that this trade actually has a chance in hell of it happening.” We probably have different reasons for thinking that: I would doubt the Sox would be willing to give up as much as Youkilis and a prospect, and he seems to doubt the Braves would trade Teixeira. It’s very possible we’re both right. But that doesn’t mean I don’t think it’s a great idea. If it were ever possible, I’d be all for it. Here’s why.

As Evan says, “The Braves get a cost-controlled player for the next two years to replace Teixeira at first and a stud pitching prospect to work into the team.” Between Tim Hudson, Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens, and Jorge Campillo, we have a pretty good starting rotation that we can control for a few more years, but the Sox have quite a few terrific prospects, and Bowden would be one worth having. He’s 21 in AA with terrific strikeout and strikeout to walk ratios. Youkilis, of course, isn’t quite the offensive force that Teixeira is, but he’s not too far off and he’s a great deal cheaper (and the Braves would control him for two more years). Youkilis’s career line is .285/.383/.453, while Tex is at .285/.371/.534. Yook is actually having a much better year than Tex this year, lapping Tex by 72 points of OPS. Tex’s defensive reputation is better than Youkilis’s, but a) that’s probably overblown, and by RZR and fielding percentage the difference between them is probably slight at best, and b) first base defense almost doesn’t matter, as long as they can catch the ball.

If the Braves let Tex walk, they get two draft picks. Draft picks are wonderful, but even first-rounders often don’t make the majors. Youkilis is an extremely productive major league hitter who’s only slightly worse than Teixeira. (Teixeira’s much more of a star, of course, but on-base percentage is far more important than slugging, so Tex’s large edge in slugging — which has disappeared this year — is partially mitigated by Youkilis’s smaller edge in OBP.) He’s cheaper, and the Braves would have him for several years after the deal, which is important because at the moment the Braves have no first baseman for 2009. Michael Bowden is the cherry on top, and he’s a prospect most organizations would kill for, well on his way to Major League stardom.

The Braves are somewhat in contention for the playoffs this year, and so would be understandably reluctant to look like sellers. Dealing a star for prospects or other pieces usually sends a message to your fans that you’re giving up on this year in order to have a better shot next year. However, again, the offensive hit the Braves would sustain by switching from Teixeira to Youkilis would be minimal at worst. Notwithstanding that Youkilis is hitting better this year, Teixeira’s simply not as good of a hitter as Scott Boras would lead you to believe. He’s very good, but he’s not elite. He’s solidly in the second tier of major league hitters, which Youkilis also occupies. Because the offensive hit would be minimal, exchanging Tex for Youkilis would not affect the Braves’ ability to contend for their division this year, and it would better position the Braves to contend for the next two years we’d have him manning first base.

The knocks on Yook that Evan mentions are that he had a rough second-half slide last year (.238/.356/.391) and that he seems to be the sort of player who would have a short peak and a relatively young decline (probably because he has old player skills). I didn’t love the way the Red Sox handled Youkilis, rebuffing other teams who asked after him while burying him in the minor leagues until he was 25, so that his first full year in the majors didn’t come until he was 27. Apparently, they knew he was a valuable hitter, but neither had space for him on the major league roster nor wanted to trade him, so they simply held on to him without letting him start. He’s actually a year older than Teixeira. The first concern is much more worrisome than the second. As we’ve seen with Teixeira this year and with LaRoche in previous years, it’s very hard to weather a middle-of-the-order first baseman deciding to disappear for an entire half-season. However, assuming that he didn’t completely disappear, it seems likely that he will stay a very good hitter for at least the next two years. Hitters with his skills — high walks, high strikeouts, fairly good power, slow baserunning — do tend to drop off quicker than most, but they’re usually able to survive at least into their early 30’s, which is as long as we’d have him. If he fell off after that, it wouldn’t be our problem.

Again, this has no chance of happening. Evan seems to think it would be a great idea for the Sox. As far as I’m concerned, we’d be robbing them blind. I’d be all in favor of this happening. Here’s hoping Frank Wren and Theo Epstein get creative.