MVN - Most Valuable Network

July 2nd Signing Period Upon Us

Tonight at 9:00pm PST, the official “July 2nd” signing period for international free agents opens. The Oakland A’s, for the first time arguably ever, are expected to be major players. It has been widely reported by Baseball America, ESPN and others that the A’s are expected to announce the signing of 16-year-old right-hander Michel Inoa tonight/tomorrow morning. Inoa is considered the top Latin American prospect available this signing period.

The 6′7” right-hander reportedly throws in the low-90s with projection to reach 100 MPH by the time he finishes growing (which could be three or four years from now, given his young age). He is the son of two elite athletes in the Dominican Republic and some scouts have called him one of the most athletic 6′7” players they have ever seen.

Of course, much of these reports are just speculation. After all, until Inoa is actually competing against other minor league players, it will be difficult to determine in any true sense how good he really is. Still, the descriptions of his talent are tantalizing. It is also extremely encouraging to see the A’s active in the international free agent market for elite talents. Back in the 1980s, the A’s were one of the leaders in Latin America. However, since the bonus demands of elite players from that region exploded a few years back, the A’s have been quiet in the international market, choosing to sign scores of cheaper talent rather than splurge on big ticket players.

The results of the quantity over “quality” approach have, not surprisingly, yielded the A’s little by way of major league players from their Latin American program over the past few years. Currently, the A’s have only three players from their Latin American program on their 40-man roster: Santiago Casilla, Gregorio Petit and Henry Rodriguez. Meanwhile, teams such as the New York Yankees have dramatically re-stocked their once dormant farm systems with elite talent from the Latin American region. Even teams like the San Francisco Giants, who have all but ignored their farm system for the past few years, have added elite talent from Latin America in recent years (the Giants’ top prospect is Angel Villalona, a 17-year-old slugger from the Dominican Republic who was signed for more than $2 million in 2006). For a team like Oakland that relies on its farm system to succeed, falling behind on talent in Latin America is a very dangerous proposition, indeed.

There are, of course, inherent risks involved in committing big money to young players such as Michel Inoa, who, at 16, is years away from escaping the injury nexus for pitchers. At the reported cost of $4.25 million, Inoa will be getting more money from the A’s in his signing bonus than any other player in the team’s history, including Mark Mulder. Our friends over at the Texas Rangers’ MVN blog have put together an excellent post outlining the risks involved committing this much money to a young pitcher. In the 1990s, the A’s committed big money to two young pitchers — Todd Van Poppel and Ariel Prieto — in hopes that both would become aces, only to see them fail to come close to reaching their potentials with Oakland.

Of course, the A’s also risked a big bonus on Mark Mulder, only to reap huge benefits from that signing. Mulder and Inoa are very different pitchers (Mulder was a polished collegiate pitcher and was five years older than Inoa), but, as we have documented on here in the past, that bonus to Mulder resulted in five seasons of Mulder, three seasons of Dan Haren, three-plus seasons of Kiko Calero, Daric Barton, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham and Brett Anderson. A pretty good investment, no?

Many scouts have stated that if he were available in this year’s draft, Inoa would have likely gone among the top five picks. Given that Tim Beckham, the number one pick, signed for $6 million, it doesn’t seem out-of-line that a top-five talent like Inoa would receive $4.25 million. And since the A’s didn’t have any supplemental first or second round picks, as they have often had in years past, Oakland’s overall investment in “first and second round talent” in 2008 shouldn’t be that far out-of-line with their normal budget, even by signing Inoa. While many top-five draft picks fail to pan out, many more develop into franchise-changing players. Since the A’s will never be able to buy a franchise-changing player on the free agent market, signing them as international free agents or drafting them is the best avenue Oakland has to bring in these elite talents. To me, it is a risk well worth taking.

Harden The Magnificent

We’ve talked about him some on this blog over the past few weeks, but following his performance on Thursday, we would be remiss if we didn’t take yet another opportunity to admire the greatness that is a healthy Rich Harden.

There are very few pitchers in all of baseball who actually inspire you to think that they are going to throw a no-hitter every single time they take the mound. Harden is most certainly one of them. Usually a pitcher has to last until the fourth or fifth inning for me to start thinking about a no-hitter, but with Harden, it is from the first pitch. He was awfully close today, allowing only a bloop single and an infield hit to Shane Victorino in eight splendid innings. He struck-out 11, but still managed to keep his pitch count low (95 in eight innings) thanks to his magnificent control (64 strikes) and an aggressive Phillies line-up.

Lest we forget, Harden diced through a line-up featuring two MVPs (Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard), one potential MVP (Chase Utley) and an elite slugger (Pat Burrell). Harden barely broke a sweat in this game. In fact, it was sort of a letdown not to see him finish off the gem, even though the A’s were comfortably ahead. While I understand the reasoning given Harden’s always fragile health, it would have been fun to see that CG in his boxscore.

It is also games like this one that make the dilemma of what to do with Rich Harden even more perplexing. Now that Rich has made nine starts in a row without incident, one can start to dream a little about what it would be like to have him in the A’s rotation all year, and for years to come after this one. Harden has the ability to be to the A’s what Pedro Martinez was to the Red Sox and Randy Johnson was to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the early 2000s. With Oakland’s track-record of finding unheralded pitchers and turning them into solid number two or three starters and with the stable of young pitching talent coming up through the A’s ranks, a Harden-led Oakland rotation could make the A’s dominant over the next several years.

Of course, counting on Harden to be healthy may be as prudent as buying an SUV right now. The ride might look pretty, but there is a good chance that it will wind-up an expensive but impractical toy. If the A’s were the New York Yankees, the dilemma would be easy to solve. New York would lock up Harden while his open market value is still relatively low because, after all, the only thing they’d be risking is money, and money isn’t really that important in the grand scheme of their operation. For the A’s, though, a bad contract can be as limiting as Frank Thomas’ sore quad muscle. Should the A’s sign Harden to a three-year/$30 million deal, say, and he made only 10 starts a year, Oakland would be playing with essentially a sixth of its payroll on the DL with just Harden hurt. That is a big risk for a team like Oakland.

Yet the reward would be so great if Harden could finally stay healthy, and the pain of watching him put together a healthy season with another team would be almost too painful to bear. As hard as it was to see Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito go, we had the comfort of knowing that we got to watch their best seasons in Oakland. With Harden, if he were to leave this year or next, there would be the sense still that the best is yet to come.

With every start like the one Harden had on Thursday, his trade value only continues to climb, and yet, with every start like this one, Harden’s value to the A’s also grows in size, and the question of what to do with him becomes even more difficult.

A’s Hanging Tough

Following another dominating performance by Justin Duchscherer, the Oakland A’s moved to 12-7 for the month of June. The win allowed the A’s to keep pace with the Angels for first place in the division (4.5 games out) and the Rays for the Wild Card (3 games out). With 12 wins already in June, the A’s have equaled their win total for the month of May.

Assuming that the A’s have a decent final week of June, Oakland will enter July in a surprisingly strong position to challenge for a playoff spot. With Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney supposedly set to return to active duty next month and the pitching staff throwing well, the A’s could be poised to make one of their patented late-season runs a la 2000-2006.

Assuming that the A’s are challenging for a playoff spot come July 31st, Oakland will find itself in a position to be a buyer at the deadline rather than a seller, as most would have assumed the team would be at the start of the season. The A’s won’t sell the farm to compete this season, as they have a long-term plan in place that involves many of their top young players in the minor leagues. However, they could solidify their playoff position with a few small deals at the deadline.

The pitching staff doesn’t appear to need much of an upgrade at the moment. With Chad Gaudin in the bullpen, the A’s have a back-up plan if one of their starters were to be injured. Oakland also has Lenny DiNardo, Dallas Braden and Kirk Saarloos at Triple-A if more than one starter were to go down.

The line-up could use some tinkering, however, especially in the bench areas. If Thomas and Sweeney return in July, the A’s will have a more intimidating right-handed presence in their line-up. However, even with those sluggers’ returns, the A’s are still left-handed heavy. The A’s have struggled badly against left-handed pitching this season, largely because of their lefty leaning line-up.

Currently, Rajai Davis and Emil Brown are the A’s two right-handed bats in the outfield, but neither has hit particularly well over the past month. Replacing either one of those players with a right-handed weapon such as Matt Murton of the Cubs could give the A’s a boost versus tough lefties down-the-stretch. The Cubs will probably be in a buying position themselves, but they may be willing to deal Murton (who has never found a regular spot with the Cubs over the past two years) for some bullpen help. With Santiago Casilla and Andrew Brown back, Joey Devine hopefully on the mend, Brad Ziegler pitching well in the big leagues and Jerry Blevins waiting in the wings at Triple-A, the A’s have good depth in the bullpen. Oakland could probably afford to part with a Keith Foulke or Alan Embree in exchange for a young right-handed bat such as Murton at the deadline.

The A’s may also target a right-handed hitting first baseman at the trade deadline to share time with Daric Barton, especially if Mike Sweeney is slow to recover from his knee injuries. The Yankees might not want much for Shelley Duncan, who is currently at Triple-A. He had a better than 900 OPS versus left-handed pitchers last season for the Yankees.

If the A’s look to be sellers at the deadline, pitchers such as Duchscherer, Rich Harden and Joe Blanton could bring the A’s back a big haul. But if the team is still in contention in late July, it seems unlikely that the A’s will go into a complete sell mode. The way the team plays over the next three weeks should determine the direction the A’s take at the deadline.

Interleague Play a Mystery Show

After completing a three-game sweep of the Giants over the weekend, the A’s will take a day to travel to Arizona where they will continue their interleague schedule Tuesday night. The A’s will then conclude their schedule versus the senior circuit with three series at home. However, the makeup of the interleague slate this season represents yet another shift in cross-league scheduling policy that has been a revolving door of adjustments ever since its inception in 1997.

For the first few years, through 2001, each division would play its interleague equivalent. For example, the A’s would play all of the NL West teams and the Marlins would play the AL East teams. Then, after apparent complaints from clubs about not playing similar opponents (especially from teams like the Marlins who had to play the likes of New York and Boston every year), the powers that be decided to rotate divisions every season. Now, West teams could play Central teams one season and East teams the next. MLB has kept some form of this schedule intact to this day. However, the A’s interleague schedule has been an example of just how baffling the system has become.

After playing the NL West exclusively through 2001, the A’s played two series against the Giants and a few series versus NL Central squads in 2002. In 2003, they played the Giants and some NL East teams. In 2004, rather than switching back to the NL West, the Athletics again played the NL Central, along with their customary series versus San Francisco. In 2005, it was back to the NL East again. Finally, the A’s resumed their rivalry with the NL West (including S.F.) in 2006.

What happened in 2007 was particularly frustrating for the average baseball fan. Teams started playing opponents from all over the place. For example, the A’s played two series against the Giants, as usual. They then played against Houston, St. Louis and Cincinnati of the NL Central and, mysteriously, a series versus the Mets. After playing one team in the NL West twice, three teams from the NL Central and one from the NL East, nobody could be blamed for giving up on trying to understand the scheduling philosophy. This season has been equally confusing, with the A’s playing three at Atlanta in May, then going to San Francisco and now on to Arizona. After that, they’ll host Florida, Philadelphia and San Francisco, again, leaving out the NL Central entirely.
At this point, I’m just going to assume that somebody in the commissioner’s office is picking names out of a throwback Astros cap whilst simultaneously “seriously investigating” the possibility of instant replay in Major League Baseball.

On a less frustrating note, Eric Chavez has enjoyed his return from his several off-season surgeries so far,  batting .291 with eight RBI in 14 games. Expectations were understandably cautious for the oft-injured third baseman after undergoing procedures on his back and both shoulders after last season, but Chavez has been making consistent solid contact out of the middle of the order. Assuming there are no setbacks, it looks like it will only be a matter of time before his power returns. With Frank Thomas out until at least July, the A’s could use the boost.

Finally, Santiago Casilla appears likely to come off the DL soon, so more roster moves are to come.

Sweeping Away The Neighbors And Other Notes

It wasn’t always pretty, but the Oakland A’s pitching staff put together a solid stretch of three games versus the San Francisco Giants this weekend. The A’s walked 12 Giants batters over the three games, a high total against a team that isn’t particularly patient. However, despite the bouts of wildness, the A’s held the Giants to four runs in three games. The bullpen, in particular, was solid, allowing only two runs in 9.1 innings over the weekend. The A’s offense wasn’t particularly impressive. They looked almost over-matched against Matt Cain for much of the game and didn’t score as much as one would expect against a wobbly Barry Zito and Kevin Correia, who was just activated off of the DL. However, the offense showed good staying power, making late-game adjustments and scratching out enough runs to win. The A’s offense still seems off-kilter right now, but it should receive a boost in July with the return of Frank Thomas and could click even more later in the season if Carlos Gonzalez grows more comfortable in the big leagues and Daric Barton and Travis Buck get their offensive games going on all cylinders. The A’s pitching also could improve, especially in the bullpen where hard-throwing set-up men Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine should return sometime over the next few weeks.

Some other thoughts as the A’s head to the desert to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• I keep expecting the Angels to start winning at a break-neck pace, but every time they have run off a string of wins, they have followed that up by coming back to earth a bit. The Angels are a hard team to figure out. Top to bottom, they may be the most talented and well-rounded team in the American League. However, statistically, it appears that the Angels are a team ripe for a big decline. Los Angeles has only scored one more run than they have given up this season (292 runs scored against 291 runs against). Conversely, the A’s have scored 307 runs and have allowed only 252. Like the A’s, the Angels have suffered from a number of injuries to key players, and one would expect that run differential to improve over the next few months, but if it doesn’t, it seems likely that the Angels will see their record move back towards the .500 mark. Thus far, the difference between the A’s and Angels seems to be that the Angels have played better versus the AL West (13-8 versus the A’s 8-13 record) and the Angels have battered left-handed pitching (13-3), while the A’s have struggled (12-12).
• The A’s have swept six series this season, after sweeping only three all of last season. The A’s haven’t done a good job of extending the momentum of those sweeps, however. Oakland has dropped the last three series following a sweep after winning the series following their first two sweeps.
• Huston Street threw three scoreless frames in the series against the Giants, even though he had only one save opportunity. Oakland went 17 games in-between save opportunities, so Street has gotten regular work lately in non-save situations. Street has quietly been outstanding this season after a slow start to the year. He has allowed only 30 base-runners in 32.1 innings, and he is averaging more than one strike-out per nine innings (36 K’s). After allowing runs in his first three outings this season, Street has allowed runs in only four of his next 27 appearances.
• Rookie Brad Ziegler has had an impressive start to his big league career. He hasn’t allowed a run in his first seven appearances. More importantly, he has come into games throwing strikes and inducing a lot of groundballs, which is what the A’s were hoping he would do when they converted him into a submarine reliever before the 2007 season. Ziegler may be sent back down to Sacramento when Santiago Casilla returns, but Ziegler has certainly shown enough in this stint with Oakland to give the A’s confidence in his ability to be an important part of their bullpen long-term.
• Emil Brown got off to a decent start this season, but he has faded in a major way over the past six weeks. After collecting 21 RBIs in April, Brown managed only 12 in May and he doesn’t have one yet in June. He hasn’t had an OPS above 600 in any month this season, either. The A’s are going to have to make some difficult decisions when Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney come back off of the DL and Brown could be vulnerable if he doesn’t pick it up over the next few weeks, especially since Jack Cust has looked more comfortable out in the field lately.
• Speaking of Cust, after a bad month of April, the A’s DH/LF has been outstanding. He had a 1004 OPS in May and he has a 1046 OPS in June. Cust’s slugging percentage is a little lower than it should be (.467 on the year), but his OBP is outstanding (.420) and the homers should pick-up as the weather warms.
• Starter Greg Smith has been surprisingly hard to hit this season. Smith doesn’t throw hard, so one would expect that he would give up his share of hits and would succeed mostly with good control. However, Smith has held AL batters to a .232 BAA, but he has struggled at times with his command, walking 33 in 79.2 innings. Smith will face his original team, the Diamondbacks, in Arizona on Thursday. That will be his last opportunity this season to swing the bat. Smith was an outstanding hitter in college and in the minor leagues, and he looked good on Friday at the plate when he sacrificed and singled in his two at-bats. The A’s would probably be hesitant to risk injury to Smith, but it would be interesting to see what he could do as a pinch-hitter for Oakland during the season.

Giambi Returns For Last Time In Pinstripes?

It has been seven seasons since Jason Giambi last donned the green and gold, and while most fans have moved on from their love or hate of the once face of the Oakland A’s franchise, it is still hard to believe that it has been that long. Being that this is the New York Yankees only trip to the Coliseum this season (barring any post-season match-ups), this could very well be the last time A’s fans see Giambi in pinstripes.

With apologies to Mark McGwire, the three greatest offensive players in Oakland A’s history have been Reggie Jackson, Rickey Henderson and Jason Giambi. All three had outlandish personalities, superstar auras, and, perhaps not coincidentially, all three spent time with the Yankees after beginning their careers in Oakland.

For Reggie, the move to the Bronx was a big success. Jackson’s personality played well in Oakland as part of the colorful cast of characters that helped the A’s win three consecutive World Series titles. But Jackson came into his own as a national sports hero in New York, where he became Mr. October. He returned to the A’s at the end of his career, but while he is an important part of the A’s history, Reggie will always be known nationally as a Yankee, especially since he still works for the club.

For Rickey, the move to the Bronx was not so successful. Nor was it his choice. Rickey was dealt to the Yankees in 1985. He played four-and-a-half seasons with the Yankees and grew as a ballplayer there, adding power to his game, but Rickey’s legend was cemented when he returned to the A’s in 1989 and led the Bash Brothers to the World Series. The Oakland native went on to play for a handful of teams towards the end of his career, but he was never shy about his love for his hometown team. And the fans love him in return. If there was ever a vote on the player that most symbolizes the Oakland A’s, Rickey would probably win that vote hands-down. Very few people outside of the Bronx remember that Rickey played in New York these days.

The legacy of Jason Giambi is much more mixed. There is no question that during his time in Oakland, Giambi was one of the most popular players of in franchise history. He had the swagger and skill to re-vitalize a franchise that had become almost dormant in the years in-between his arrival and the end of the Bash Brothers era. He introduced himself to A’s fans by telling them that he “felt sexy” at the plate to help him hit, and carried the team on his back to playoff appearances in 2000 and 2001. Along the way, he endeared himself to fans who met him in person, coming across as one of the most genuine people in the big leagues.

What happened after the 2001 season is well-documented. Giambi’s negotiations with the A’s and the Yankees during that off-season were chronicled in nearly every sports section around the country. A’s fans were confident that their long-haired hero would spurn the Yankees money for the comfort of the green and gold, but they were left heart-broken when Jason signed with New York. Giambi then made the infamous David Letterman appearance where he dissed the city of Oakland, and that love turned into red-hot hate.

Giambi left the A’s for New York looking for the magic that Reggie found in the Bronx. Instead, he ended up finding his star played in New York about as well as Rickey’s did. Just as Rickey could never be the star of the team with Don Mattingly on the Yankees, Giambi never became the face of New York with Derek Jeter on the team. Later, the additions of A-Rod and others regulated Giambi almost to background status for much of his time with the pinstripes.

Of course, nothing can be written about Giambi’s time with the Yankees without mentioning BALCO and the steroid scandals. We will never know whether Jason would have been thought of differently in New York but for those scandals, but the fact remains that seven years after Jason thought he would be heading to the Hall of Fame as a Yankee, Giambi is winding down his time in New York as a relatively secondary character on a team filled with superstars. Perhaps if the Yankees win the World Series this season, Giambi’s legacy in New York will be different. But, barring that, he will likely leave the team as a footnote in the franchise history.

On the flip-side, Giambi’s legacy in Oakland is also equally unclear. As we move further away from his decision to leave the team, it becomes easier to remember him as the leader of the resurgent A’s clubs of the late 1990s and early 2000s, and less as a villian. From all accounts, Giambi is still that nice, out-going personality that he was in Oakland (the recent mustache and thong stories surrounding Jason sound very much like his time in Oakland). But if Giambi never wears the green and gold again, it is more likely that Jason will end up as a Reggie Jackson character in A’s team history, rather than a Rickey Henderson figure; someone who was a star with the team, but was remembered more for his time with another organization.

Could Duke Be A Two-Time All-Star?

The Oakland A’s are off to a nice start to their season, but they don’t have an obvious candidate to play in this year’s All-Star game. Jack Cust is the only active A’s position player with an OPS better than 850, and while a number of A’s pitchers are having good seasons, none are posting All-Star friendly win-loss records the way that Dan Haren did last season. Still, the A’s will have a representative in the game (as every team does), so let’s take a look at the leading candidates as of Thursday morning:

Justin Duchscherer: Duke could gain the interesting distinction of becoming the only two-time All-Star that most of America has never heard of. Duke was an All-Star for the A’s as a reliever in 2005. This time, he is making a bid as a starting pitcher. Despite the rough ending to his outing on Wednesday, Duchscherer was mostly dominant in his start versus Detroit, and has pitched that way for most of the season. His record is only 5-4, but he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA through nine starts. He has given up only 61 base-runners in 54.1 innings  (1.03 WHIP). His ERA would lead the AL if he had enough innings to qualify for the title (Duke missed two weeks in April with an elbow injury and is a few innings off of the pace to qualify for the ERA title). The Boston Red Sox coaching staff, which will be picking the pitchers, got to see Duke’s brilliance up-close on Memorial Day weekend when Duchscherer nearly no-hit the Red Sox.

Rich Harden: Don’t laugh, but if by some miracle Harden stays healthy between now and July, Rich could find himself in New York for the All-Star game. Harden has missed significant time this season with injuries, but he has made only two fewer starts than has Duchscherer. In his seven starts, Harden has been outstanding in six of them and he has a 2.61 ERA overall. He has 49 strike-outs in only 41.1 innings and opposing batters are hitting only .219 against him. The Boston Red Sox coaches have seen Harden three times this season, and the Red Sox have managed only three runs in 17 innings, numbers that are bound to leave an impression. Working against Harden is the fact that he has missed so much time. The A’s might also not be thrilled about Harden pitching in the All-Star game, given his injury history.

Huston Street: The ERA isn’t that pretty thanks, in large part, to two bad outings (one versus the Red Sox in Japan and one versus the Atlanta Braves), but Street is actually having an outstanding season. The A’s closer has 12 saves in 14 opportunities and is holding opposing batters to a .188 average and has an 0.91 WHIP. He has struck-out 32 while walking only seven in 27.1 innings this season. In May, he walked only two while striking out 18 in 12 innings. Working against Street is the fact that a number of closers are having excellent seasons in the AL, including K-Rod, Mariano Rivera, George Sherrill, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, B.J. Ryan and Troy Percival.

Jack Cust: Cust’s chances of making the AL team as a reserve went up when David Ortiz injured his wrist. If Ortiz is unable to participate in the All-Star game, Cust may be given a spot on the AL bench. Right now, Cust’s OPS stands at 868, but it is on the up-swing. After a horrible month of April where he posted a 669 OPS, Cust tore it up in May, posting a 1004 OPS. If Cust can continue to hit like that in June, he could earn a spot on the team. He is currently fourth in the AL in OBP and first in walks. Cust could improve his chances by picking up the homer pace a bit in June. Being from New Jersey, Cust would be a feel-good story at this year’s All-Star game in the Big Apple. Working against Cust is the fact that the AL is stocked with good-hitting outfielders, some with significantly gaudier homer and RBI totals, numbers that usually get players onto All-Star teams.